In this article, we will formulate a Cubs vs Brewers Prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, October 4th at the American Family Field in Game 1 of the NLDS. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers finished the regular season with a 97-65 record and were placed first in the NL Central. The Brewers have a 52-29 home record and are 77-80 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-2 home victory over the Reds, but they are 2-5 in their last 7 games. Under is 6-2 in their last 8 games.
The Brewers have a .258 batting average this season, .332 OBP and .403 slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.58 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Brice Turang leads the Brewers with 168 hits, while Sam Frelick is the team’s best hitter, with a .288 batting average. Christian Yelich leads the team in RBI, with 103, adding a team-high 29 home runs.
Freddy Peralta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers, and he has a 17-6 record, 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.
Chicago Cubs Preview
The Chicago Cubs finished the regular season with a 92-70 record and were placed second in the NL Central. The Cubs have a 51-32 home record and are 74-77 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-1 home victory over the Padres, and are 5-1 in their last 6 games. Their last four games have gone under the total.
The Cubs have a .249 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .430 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the team with 4 hits, while Michael Busch is the team’s best hitter, with a .400 batting average. Carson Kelly leads the team with one RBI and one home run.
Matthew Boyd (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 0-0 record, 2.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in the postseason.
The Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends: October 4, 2025
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta Record this season: 17-6 ERA: 2.70
- Home Record: 9-1
- Last 5 against Cubs: 4-1
Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win
- The favorites have won each of the Cubs’ last eight games.
- The Cubs have lost each of their last five day games against the Brewers following a win.
- The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Cubs’ last eight games.
- The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six playoff games as underdogs following a win.
- The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games as underdogs.
- The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games as underdogs.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Matthew Boyd Record this season (inc. playoffs): 14-8 ERA: 3.18
- Road Record: 2-7
- Last 5 against Brewers: 2-2
Why the Chicago Cubs will win
- The Cubs have won each of their last five games as underdogs against the Brewers following a home win.
- The Brewers have lost each of their last four playoff games as favorites following a win.
- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight home games against National League opponents following a win.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in eight of the Brewers’ last nine games.
- The Brewers have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five playoff games against NL Central opponents.
- The Cubs have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Cubs’ last six playoff games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Brewers’ last four day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last five home games.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Cubs’ last five games as road underdogs.
Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts
- Christian Yelich has hit a home run in three of his last four home appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Andrew Vaughn has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against the Cubs.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his last five home appearances against the Cubs.
- Sal Frelick has recorded at least one hit in 17 of his last 18 home appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Freddy Peralta ranks 4th in the league for Wins (17) this season.
Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts
- Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in each of the Cubs’ last three games against NL Central opponents.
- Kyle Tucker has recorded a Double in three of his last four road appearances.
- Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 10 games.
- Nico Hoerner ranks 6th in the league in Hits (178) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.332).
- The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for steals this season (164).
- The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (405).
- The Cubs rank T3rd in the league for RBIs this season (771).
Cubs vs Brewers Prediction
The Cubs are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Brewers, but the Brewers are 2-1 in their last 3 meetings in Milwaukee. Under is 4-2 in their last 6 meetings.
In this Cubs vs Brewers Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -160 home favorites. The Cubs eliminated the Padres in the Wild Card series, with Boyd having a quality start with just one earned run in game 1 of that series. He was torched in his only start in Milwaukee this season, with 5 earned runs, and has been weaker on the road this season, with a 3.90 ERA. On the flip side, Peralta has been elite this season and excellent at home, with a 1.77 ERA. Milwaukee has both the better bullpen and is the best team against lefties this season. Add to the fact the home court advantage and extra days of rest, and I expect the Brewers to draw first blood today.