In this article, we will formulate a Cubs vs Mets Prediction for this MLB matchup on Thursday, June 25th in the fourth game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
New York Mets Preview
The New York Mets have a 34-46 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL East. They have a 18-21 home record and are coming off a 5-10 home defeat against the Cubs. They will face the Phillies and the Blue Jays next.
The Mets have a .231 batting average this season, .298 OBP and .376 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.22 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Juan Soto is the team’s best hitter with a .299 batting average, also adding a team-high 17 home runs. Bo Bichette leads the team in RBI with 45.
Freddy Peralta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 5-6 record, 4.83 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.
Chicago Cubs Preview
The Chicago Cubs have a 43-37 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL Central. They have a 20-20 road record and are coming off a 10-5 road win against the Mets. They will face the Brewers and the Padres next.
The Cubs have a .244 batting average this season, .338 OBP and .406 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 4.30 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the team’s best hitter with a .285 batting average, also adding a team-high 17 home runs. Dansby Swanson leads the team in RBI with 46.
Matthew Boyd (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 2-1 record, 6.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.
The Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets Betting Trends: June 25, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta Record this season: 5-6 ERA: 4.83
- Home Record: 3-3
- Last 5 against Cubs: 2-3
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Mets have won each of their last eight Thursday games against NL Central opponents.
- The Cubs have lost six of their last seven night games against the Mets following a win.
- The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games against the Mets following a win.
- The favorites have covered the run line in four of the Mets’ last five games.
- The Mets have won the first inning in each of their last five Thursday games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Matthew Boyd Record this season: 2-1 ERA: 6.00
- Road Record: 0-0
- Last 5 against Mets: 2-0
Why the Chicago Cubs will win
- The Cubs have won each of their last 11 games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Mets have lost each of their last six night games against NL Central opponents.
- The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last 10 Thursday road games against National League opponents.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 home games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- The Cubs have led after 3 innings in five of their last six night games.
- The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six night games against NL Central opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Cubs’ last six games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Mets’ last four home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Cubs’ last seven games against NL East opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the last five games between the Cubs and Mets.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Francisco Alvarez has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last five home games against NL Central opponents.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances against the Cubs.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six Thursday appearances.
- Francisco Alvarez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last nine games against NL Central opponents.
- Juan Soto ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.570) this season.
Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit a home run in five of the Cubs’ last six night games.
- Matthew Boyd has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 13 games.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Mets rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (98).
- The Mets rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.298).
- The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks this season (353).
- The Cubs rank 30th in the league for home runs allowed this season (121).
Cubs vs Mets Prediction
The Cubs have won their last 6 meetings against the Mets and have won their last three visits in New York. Over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 meetings.
In this Cubs vs Mets Prediction, the Mets are coming as -115 home favorites. I like the over in this game, as all three games of this series had been extremely high-scoring ones, with 15, 15 and 13 total runs and I don’t trust either pitcher in this matchup. Peralta has given up 16 runs in two of his last three starts, while Boyd has not played since May 3rd and has a 6.00 ERA this season. Take the over 8.5 in this one.