The Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago Cubs meet Sunday in MLB action from Wrigley Field. This will be the final installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Cubs vs Phillies prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Cubs vs Phillies pick.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Philly opened up their season with a series victory versus the Washington Nationals, then took a sweep over the Colorado Rockies next. Philadelphia would then beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-game series before a loss in a set versus the Braves. Philadelphia lost in the next series against St. Louis, then took a split in four games against the Giants. Last weekend, Philadelphia beat the Marlins in two of three games but didn’t play very well in their last series versus the Mets. Philly got swept in that one, 5-4, 5-1, and 4-3. On Friday in the opener versus the Cubs, Philadelphia couldn’t get anything going on five team hits in a 4-0 shutout defeat. JT Realmuto had two of those hits, and Taijuan Walker went 3.0 innings with two earned runs on six hits and two walks.
In the Saturday game, Philly bagged 12 team hits on the way to a 10-4 victory. Both Bryce Harper (two walks) and Kyle Schwarber (run) had two RBI apiece. Starter Jesus Luzardo put up 6.0 clean innings with three hits, three walks, and five Ks.
Starter for Sunday’s finale will be Aaron Nola. In his five starts so far, Nola is 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA in 28.0 innings total. Over his career, Nola is 104-84 with a 3.75 ERA in 273 starts.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
Over on the Cubs’ side, they took a split in four games versus the Arizona Diamondbacks in their opening set, then swept the Oakland Athletics before a set win versus the San Diego Padres. Chicago then bagged a victory in another series against the Texas Rangers. Next was a series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers in two of three games. After a set loss to the Padres, the Cubs managed to get wins in two of three during the rematch with the Diamondbacks last weekend. Chicago beat the Dodgers in both their games this past week, eking them out 11-10 and 7-6. On Friday versus the Phillies, the Cubs posted 11 team hits on the way to the victory. Starter Colin Rea picked up the win with 5.0 innings, two walks, and seven strikeouts over 92 pitches.
In the Saturday matchup, Chicago gave up six runs in the fourth inning during the loss. Ben Brown posted six earned runs on nine hits and a walk in just 3.2 frames as a starter.
Jameson Taillon will take the mound for the start on Sunday. This year, Taillon is 1-1 with a 4.73 ERA in five starts across 26.2 innings. In his career, Taillon is 72-54 with a 3.91 ERA in 206 games (205 starts).
Why the Chicago Cubs will win
- The Cubs have won each of their last six games at Wrigley Field following a loss.
- The Phillies have lost 10 of their last 11 road games following a win.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Cubs have covered the run line in four of their last five games at Wrigley Field following a loss.
- The Cubs have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have lost the first inning in each of their last three night games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Cubs have led after 5 innings in 11 of their last 12 games at Wrigley Field against National League opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won five of their last six games as underdogs against the Cubs.
- The Cubs have lost each of their last three games as favorites against the Phillies following a loss.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a win.
- The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games against the Phillies at Wrigley Field following a loss.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in five of their last six night games against the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Cubs’ last eight night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Six of the Phillies’ last seven road games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Phillies’ last 10 road games against NL Central opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Cubs’ last eight night games.
Cubs vs Phillies Prediction
I’ll stay with the Cubs. Taillon has been getting progressively better over his last three starts, even though he hasn’t registered a decision in any of them. First came three earned in 6.0 innings versus the Rangers, then two earned in 5.1 frames against the Padres. In his most recent appearance, Taillon gave up just one earned run on three hits and two walks over 5.0 innings against the Diamondbacks on April 20. As for Nola, he’s had some issues this year. Over his last two starts, Nola has given up 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings on 16 hits and six walks. He’s obviously a better pitcher than that, though, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Nola dominate at any time.
Chicago got buried by the six-run fourth inning on Saturday, but the offense didn’t perform too badly overall. I like the Cubs to bounce back in the finale.