In this article we will formulate a Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 29th at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Tigers Losing Momentum
The Detroit Tigers are 52-55 this year and they have lost four of their last six games. Detroit is coming off of a series loss against Minnesota, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Tigers split four games with the Guardians, won two out of three against the Blue Jays, and won two out of three against the Dodgers. Detroit is 3-5 in their last eight games and they are fourth in the AL Central.
The Detroit pitching staff has a 3.92 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Tigers offense has scored 455 runs with a .231 batting average and a .297 on base percentage. Colt Keith is batting .256 with 11 home runs and 41 RBI’s for the Tigers this season. Detroit has scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five games.
Guardians Still Leading the AL Central
The Cleveland Guardians are 63-42 this season and they have won four of their last six games. Cleveland is coming off of a series win against Philadelphia, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Guardians split four games with the Tigers, lost two out of three against the Padres, and lost two out of three against the Rays. Cleveland is 4-5 in their last nine games and they are first in the AL Central.
The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .232 opponent batting average. The Guardians offense has scored 478 runs with a .240 batting average and a .312 on base percentage. Jose Ramirez is batting .271 with 24 home runs and 82 RBI’s for the Guardians this season. Cleveland has scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Jack Flaherty, who is 7-5 with a 2.95 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 106.2 innings pitched this year. Flaherty has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Tanner Bibee, who is 8-4 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 115.2 innings pitched this season. Bibee has allowed a total of one earned run in his last two starts (10.2 IP).
Why the Tigers will beat the Guardians
- The Tigers have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs against AL Central opponents following a home loss.
- The Guardians have lost each of their last four games as road favorites against AL Central opponents following a road win.
- The Guardians have failed to cover the run line each of their last 13 games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Tigers have covered the run line in each of their last 13 games against the Guardians.
- The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four road games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Guardians have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five road games against American League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Guardians’ last six road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Seven of the Tigers’ last eight night games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Tigers’ last five night games at Comerica Park.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last three games at Comerica Park.
Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts
- Matt Vierling has scored at least one run in each of his last six home appearances against the Guardians.
- Jack Flaherty has recorded six or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 appearances in night games.
- Matt Vierling has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 13 appearances with the Tigers as home underdogs against AL Central opponents.
- Javier Baez has hit a home run in three of the Tigers’ last four games as underdogs.
- Jack Flaherty has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances with the Tigers as underdogs.
- Matt Vierling has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances against the Guardians after playing the previous day.
- Kerry Carpenter has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances with the Tigers as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
- Matt Vierling has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances with the Tigers as home underdogs against AL Central opponents.
- Kerry Carpenter has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight home appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts
- Josh Naylor has hit a home run in three of his last seven road appearances against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- Andres Gimenez has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Guardians’ last five games as road favorites against AL opponents.
- Andres Gimenez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians’ last eight games as road favorites.
- Steven Kwan has recorded at least one Single in seven of the Guardians’ last eight night games.
- Josh Naylor has scored at least one run in four of his last five road appearances against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- Andres Gimenez has recorded at least one total base in each of the Guardians’ last eight games as road favorites.
Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction
Cleveland comes into this series with a 4.5 game lead over the Twins in the AL Central, but their offense has not been very good over the last two weeks. The Guardians are 30-27 on the road, while the Tigers are just 25-26 at home. Detroit has lost quite a bit of momentum after their hot streak ended about a week ago, and they are now faced with some tough decisions at the trade deadline. Detroit will have Flaherty on the mound, who has been great all season. The Guardians are going with Bibee, who has had two very good starts in a row and has faced this Detroit lineup two times in the past few starts. The Guardians are the better team, but they have had their issues on the road this year and their offense is inconsistent. I think Flaherty will continue to pitch well and my Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians prediction is for the Tigers to win.