In this article, we will formulate a Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for this MLB matchup on Thursday, July 9th in the fourth game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
San Diego Padres Preview
The San Diego Padres have a 46-46 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL West. They have a 25-22 home record and are coming off a 10-4 home win against the Diamondbacks. They will face the Blue Jays and the Royals next.
The San Diego Padres have a .226 batting average this season, .301 OBP and .373 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 4.21 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the team’s best hitter with a .284 batting average. Manny Machado leads the team in RBI with 51, adding a team-high 18 home runs.
Griffin Canning (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the San Diego Padres, and he has a 1-6 record, 6.71 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.
Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 45-47 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL West. They have a 18-27 away record and are coming off a 4-10 road loss against the Padres. They will face the Dodgers and the Cardinals next.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a .236 batting average this season, .307 OBP and .383 Slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.24 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Ketel Marte is the team’s best hitter with a .266 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI with 54, adding a team-high 17 home runs.
Merrill Kelly (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he has a 6-8 record, 5.71 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: July 9, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Griffin Canning Record this season: 1-6 ERA: 6.71
- Home Record: 0-2
- Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 2-2
Why the San Diego Padres will win
- The Padres have won six of their last seven home games against the Diamondbacks.
- The Diamondbacks have lost five of their last six road games.
- The Padres have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
- The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games at Petco Park.
- The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven Thursday games as underdogs.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly Record this season: 6-8 ERA: 5.71
- Road Record: 3-5
- Last 5 against Padres: 1-4
Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win
- The Padres have lost four of their last five games as favorites against NL West opponents following a win.
- The Diamondbacks have won four of their last six games as underdogs against NL West opponents following a loss.
- The Padres have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as favorites following a win.
- The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in five of their last six road games against NL West opponents following a loss.
- The Padres have lost the first inning in each of their last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
- The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Fourteen of the Diamondbacks’ last 16 road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the Padres’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the last eight night games between the Diamondbacks and Padres.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Diamondbacks’ last six road games.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
- Luis Campusano has hit a home run in four of his last six appearances with the Padres as favorites against NL West opponents.
- Griffin Canning has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Samad Taylor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T5th in the league in Steals (23) this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit a home run in three of his last six appearances with the Diamondbacks as road underdogs against the Padres.
- Merrill Kelly has recorded a win in four of his last five road appearances against NL West opponents.
- Ketel Marte has recorded at least one hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last 11 games as road underdogs against NL opponents.
- Corbin Carroll is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Padres rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (362).
- The Padres rank 30th in the league for hits this season (681).
- The Diamondbacks rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (625).
- The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (83).
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction
The Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings against the Diamondbacks and are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in San Diego.
In this Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -125 home favorites. I don’t like either pitcher in this matchup, as they both have a combined 12.42 ERA and 1.50+ WHIP each. They both have been in very bad form, as Kelly has given up 16 runs across his last four starts while Canning has a 6.75 ERA across his last three starts. Yesterday’s game between those two teams had 14 total runs and I expect another high-scoring affair today. Take the over 8.5 runs.