In this article, we will formulate a Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, September 25th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
San Diego Padres Preview
The San Diego Padres have a 89-70 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL West. They have a 49-29 home record and are coming off a 4-2 road win against the Dodgers.
The San Diego Padres have a .243 batting average this season, .318 OBP and .397 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the team’s best hitter with a .289 batting average. Manny Machado leads the team in RBI with 87, adding a team-high 29 home runs.
Casey Mize (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 6-9 record, 3.96 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 85-74 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL West. They have a 40-38 away record and are coming off a 12-8 road win against the Rockies.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a .246 batting average this season, .317 OBP and .402 Slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.10 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Gabriel Moreno is the team’s best hitter with a .308 batting average. Nolan Arenado leads the team in RBI with 83, adding a team-high 29 home runs.
Brandon Pfaadt (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, and he has a 7-3 record, 3.72 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: September 25, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Casey Mize Record this season: 6-9 ERA: 3.96
- Home Record: 2-3
- Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 0-1
Why the San Diego Padres will win
- The Padres have won 14 of their last 15 games after playing the previous day.
- The Diamondbacks have lost seven of their last eight games against the Padres following a win.
- The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Diamondbacks’ last four games.
- The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line each of their last four games at Petco Park against teams that held a winning record.
- The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven road games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Padres have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight games as favorites against NL West opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt Record this season: 7-3 ERA: 3.72
- Road Record: 4-1
- Last 5 against Padres: 3-1
Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win
- The Diamondbacks have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
- The Padres have lost four of their last five games as favorites against the Diamondbacks following a win.
- The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in 15 of their last 16 games as road underdogs against NL West opponents following a win.
- The Padres have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against the Diamondbacks following a win.
- The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against NL opponents.
- The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in each of their last four games.
- The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games.
Total Runs Facts
- Eleven of the Padres’ last 12 games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Eight of the Diamondbacks’ last nine road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Padres’ last eight games as favorites against NL West opponents.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Diamondbacks’ last seven night games against NL West opponents.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
- Casey Mize has recorded five or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Jackson Merrill has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last 11 games as favorites.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit a home run in each of the Padres’ last two home games.
Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts
- Brandon Pfaadt has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against NL West opponents.
- Brandon Pfaadt has recorded five or more strikeouts in five of his six previous road appearances against the Padres.
- Nolan Arenado has recorded at least one hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last 10 games.
- Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances with his team as an underdog against the Padres.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Padres rank T3rd in the league for steals this season (162).
- The Padres rank T23rd in the league for doubles this season (230).
- The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (41).
- The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (1118).
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction
Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings and the Padres have won two of their last three meetings in San Diego.
In this Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -135 home favorites. Both teams have something to play for and both have been in excellent form, as they are 5-0 and 7-1 in their last 5 and 8 games respectively. Casey Mize has been struggling for the Padres lately, while Pfaadt has been better on the road and has shut out the Padres twice this season. Arizona’s offense has been red-hot, with 7.7 runs per game in their last 5 and I like them as road dogs in this spot. Take the Dbacks on the moneyline for plus money.