In this article we will formulate a Guardians vs Rays prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, October 18th at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB playoff matchup.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
The Cleveland Guardians are tied 2-2 in this series after splitting the first four games by scores of 7-3, 1-3, 3-2, and 3-7. In game four, Cleveland led 1-0 in the first inning, but they didn’t score again until the seventh in the loss. The Guardians recorded eight hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Bazzana, who went 1-3 with one home run and one RBI. Armstrong opened the game, while Espino picked up the loss in relief. Prior to this series, Cleveland defeated the White Sox in the ALDS and they had a bye in the wild card round.
This season, Cleveland had a 3.77 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while they scored 678 runs with a .239 batting average and a .316 on base percentage. Chase DeLauter led the Guardians with 16 home runs and 67 RBIs, while Angel Martinez added 18 home runs and 62 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Parker Messick, who is 0-2 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP over 11.2 innings pitched this postseason.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays are tied 2-2 in this series after they won game three by a score of 7-3 last night. Tampa Bay tied the game at one in the third inning and they scored one in the sixth + three in the seventh to pull ahead in the win. The Rays recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Aranda, who went 3-4 with two RBIs. Martinez allowed two hits and one earned run over 5.1 innings for the win, while Kelly picked up a hold. Prior to this series, Tampa Bay defeated the Yankees in the ALDS and also had a bye in the wild card round.
This season, Tampa Bay had a 3.70 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a .229 opponent batting average, while they scored 736 runs with a .258 batting average and a .326 on base percentage. Jonathan Aranda led the Rays with 22 home runs and 92 RBIs, while Junior Caminero added 42 home runs and 101 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Drew Rasmussen, who is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP over 14.0 innings pitched this postseason.
Why the Cleveland Guardians will win
- The Rays have lost each of their last eight day playoff games.
- The Guardians have won each of their last five games as underdogs following a loss.
- The Guardians have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
- The Rays have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games against the Guardians following a win.
- The Guardians have led after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Guardians have won the first inning in three of their last four games as home underdogs against AL opponents.
- The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games at Progressive Field against opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win
- The Guardians have lost seven of their last eight day games against AL East opponents.
- The Rays have won 13 of their last 16 road games against AL Central opponents.
- The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven home games following a loss.
- The Rays have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as road favorites against AL Central opponents.
- The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 playoff games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Guardians’ last five day playoff games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Rays’ last four day games against AL opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the last nine day games between the Rays and Guardians.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Rays’ last seven day games at Progressive Field.
Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts
- Travis Bazzana has hit a home run in two of the Guardians’ last three games as home underdogs against AL opponents.
- Parker Messick has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last seven home appearances.
- Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians’ last 12 playoff games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
- Parker Messick ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (2.56) this season.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
- Drew Rasmussen has recorded a win in five of his last six road appearances.
- Drew Rasmussen has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Chandler Simpson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
- Cedric Mullins has hit a home run in two of his last three playoff appearances with his team as a favorite.
- Drew Rasmussen ranks T3rd in the league for Wins (16) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Guardians rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts this season (1530).
- The Guardians rank 27th in the league for home runs this season (162).
- The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (1145).
- The Rays rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (409).
Guardians vs Rays Prediction
Tampa Bay was able to find some offense in game four to tie this series at two and they will look for another huge win here. The Rays were 43-38 on the road this year, while the Guardians were 41-40 at home. Cleveland has scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five games, while TB has scored three or fewer in three of four. The Rays are starting Rasmussen, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts, while Messick has also allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight outings. Take the under here.