The Home Run Derby takes place on Monday at Citizens Bank Park. Here’s a Home Run Derby Prediction. This article will include a Home Run Derby Pick.
Kyle Schwarber +350 – Schwarber led the National League with 56 homers last season and currently leads baseball this season with 32 homers. Schwarber has an effortless, compact swing that can lead to bombs even when he doesn’t get all of the ball. Also, Schwarber has hit 122 homers at Citizens Bank Park, so he’s familiar with the park obviously and will be a crowd favorite. Schwarber is the safe bet on Monday night.
Junior Caminero +400 – Caminero has hit a combined 73 homers in the last two seasons and comes back for revenge after finishing runner-up in last year’s derby. There was a period recently where he homered in 6 straight games. One thing that Caminero has working for him is that he just turned 23 years old. Youth and energy can be key in the later rounds, as this event takes a lot out of guys, and this field has some older players.
Munetaka Murakami +525 – Murakami has 20 homers in his rookie season, and he has some of the most raw power of anybody competing. In terms of moonballs, Murakami has got you covered, and he has the best average HR launch angle of anybody in the field. The concern is that Murakami missed time with a hamstring issue and has played only 3 games this month. A guy just working his way back does make a potential play hesitant.
Jac Caglianone +550 – Caglianone only has 15 homers this year and 22 homers in a 152-game career. However, Caglianone has some of the best exit velocity in the game and has hit some of the hardest baseballs in the history of the sport. He also hit 9 bombs in the month of June, so when he gets hot, he gets hot. Don’t let the smallish numbers fool you; Caglianone crushes the baseball, and it makes him a worthy participant.
Jordan Walker +700 – Walker is experiencing a breakout season with 22 homers and has one of the highest average bat speeds. The Cardinals have to be thrilled with his progress. However, Walker struggled in his first 3 seasons, and could’ve easily started the season in the minors. It will be interesting to see how Walker handles the big stage as everything is happening so fast.
Ben Rice +800 – Ben Rice has become the Yankees’ best hitter in Aaron Judge’s absence and has 29 homers, which have already topped last year’s total of 26. Rice has a violent swing that takes a lot of energy, so he’s possibly the hitter who will benefit most from the new format. Still, exhaustion could be a factor if Rice advances.
Bryce Harper +850 – Harper has 20 homers on the season and is closing in on 400 homers for his career. He won the derby back in 2018 in Washington and has a chance to put on a show again for his home fans. You can’t count out Harper as he’s one of the best HR hitters in this generation. However, Harper is approaching 34 years old, and many winners are in their prime power years of 24-29 years old.
Willson Contreras +1300 – Contreras has been dealing with suspensions and the emotional toll of what’s been going on in Venezuela. The crowd should get behind him to uplift his spirits. He’s already topped 20 homers in 5 of the last 6 years. However, like Harper, Contreras is a grizzled veteran who is 34 years old, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the odds are what they are. The two old men in the field are sleeping heavily.
Home Run Derby Prediction
You can talk yourself into a lot of players in this field, and the new format should make things tight. However, I do believe Caminero is the favorite, and the fact that we can get him at the second-best odds creates value. Caminero has been on a power tear over the last month and has some of the best raw power in the field.
Caminero was also the runner-up last year, so there’s some unfinished business, and he has youth on his side, which isn’t the case for a lot of these guys. We’re getting four times our money. Give me Caminero to lift the trophy.