In this article we will formulate a Houston Astros vs LA Dodgers prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, July 28th at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series.
Astros Going for Fourth Straight Win
The Houston Astros are 55-49 this year and they have won three games in a row. Houston has won the first two games in this series by scores of 5-0 and 7-6. Prior to this series, the Astros lost two out of three against the Athletics, won two out of three against the Mariners, and lost two out of three against the Rangers. Houston is 5-3 in their last eight games and they are leading the AL West standings.
The Houston pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average. The Astros offense has scored 490 runs with a .263 batting average and a .321 on base percentage. Yordan Alvarez is batting .300 with 20 home runs and 54 RBI’s for the Astros this season. Houston has scored 20 runs in their last three games, but only scored six runs in the three games prior to that.
Dodgers Division Lead is Shrinking
The Los Angeles Dodgers are 62-44 this season and they have lost three of their last four games. Los Angeles has lost the first two games in this series and they were shutout on Friday night. Prior to this series, the Dodgers won three out of four against the Giants, swept the Red Sox in three games, and lost two out of three against the Tigers. Los Angeles is 6-3 in their last nine games and they are leading the NL West, but their lead is down to 5.5 games over the Padres.
The Los Angeles pitching staff has a 3.81 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .231 opponent batting average. The Dodgers offense has scored 522 runs with a .254 batting average and a .334 on base percentage. Shohei Ohtani is batting .318 with 32 home runs and 76 RBI’s for the Dodgers this season. Los Angeles has allowed at least four runs in six of their last eight games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Houston is River Ryan, who is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 5.1 innings pitched this year. Ryan allowed one unearned run and four hits over 5.1 innings against the Giants in his first start. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Spencer Arrighetti, who is 4-8 with a 5.65 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP over 86.0 innings pitched this season. Arrighetti has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts.
Why the Astros will beat the Dodgers
- The Astros have won each of their last 10 day games against NL West opponents following a home win.
- The Dodgers have lost each of their last six road games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Astros have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 day games against NL West opponents.
- The Dodgers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Sunday road games.
- The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games at Minute Maid Park against NL West opponents.
- The Astros have led after 3 innings in each of their last five Sunday games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Five of the Dodgers’ last six day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Astros’ last five games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Dodgers’ last seven day games against AL West opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last five day games against National League opponents.
Houston Astros Player Prop Facts
- Alex Bregman has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last three games as favorites against the Dodgers.
- Jake Meyers has recorded a Double in three of the Astros’ last four games against NL opponents.
- Alex Bregman has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last six appearances in day games against NL West teams that held a winning record.
- Jeremy Pena has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Astros’ last six games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
- Alex Bregman has scored at least one run in each of his last 10 home appearances against NL opponents.
- Jose Altuve has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Alex Bregman has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last nine day games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
- Jose Altuve ranks 8th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.306) this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers Player Prop Facts
- Gavin Lux has recorded a Double in each of the Dodgers’ last three day games.
- Shohei Ohtani has recorded at least one Single in each of his last four appearances with his team as an underdog against AL West opponents.
- Shohei Ohtani has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Dodgers’ last 10 games against AL opponents.
- Max Muncy has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last 10 road appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
- Mookie Betts has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 20 road appearances against AL opponents.
- Freddie Freeman has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances with the Dodgers as road underdogs against AL opponents.
- Freddie Freeman has hit a home run in each of his last four appearances with his team as an underdog against AL West opponents.
- Shohei Ohtani ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (32) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Houston Astros rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (939).
- The Houston Astros rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.263).
- The Los Angeles Dodgers rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.334).
- The Los Angeles Dodgers rank T2nd in the league for runs scored this season (522).
Houston Astros vs LA Dodgers Prediction
Los Angeles comes into this game looking to avoid being swept in the series, as the Padres and Diamondbacks are starting to get close in the standings. The Dodgers are 28-24 on the road, while the Astros are 30-21 at home this year. Houston is currently first in the AL West and they have taken advantage of Seattle being very bad over the last few weeks. The Astros are playing like one of the top teams in the MLB right now and they are starting Arrighetti, who has been decent in his last five outings. LA is going with River Ryan, who has a very tough matchup for his second start of the season. I honestly don’t love this pitching matchup, but I am going to roll with Houston at home, as their offense is rolling right now. My Houston Astros vs LA Dodgers prediction is for the Astros to win.