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Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins Prediction 7-10-24 Picks

Miami Marlins (32-58) vs. Houston Astros (46-44)
July 10, 2024 8:10 pm EDT
The Line: Houston Astros -286 / Miami Marlins +235; Over/Under: -
(Get latest betting odds)

The Miami Marlins and the Houston Astros meet Wednesday in MLB action from Minute Maid Park. Here’s a Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins prediction. This will be the second installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

Miami took on the Chicago White Sox in their weekend set. The Marlins lost 3-2 on Friday but ended up winning the series with victories 4-3 and 7-4 in the next pair. On Tuesday versus the Astros, the Marlins lost a tough one 4-3. Starter Trevor Rogers finished on 5.1 innings, two earned, six hits and two walks.

In the starter role for the Marlins on Wednesday it’ll be Bryan Hoeing. This year Hoeing is 0-1 with a 1.99 ERA in 12 games (one start). Over his career Hoeing is 3-5 with a 5.52 ERA in 53 games (nine starts).

Houston Astros Betting Preview

Over on the Astros’ side, they played the Minnesota Twins in their last series. Houston eked out a 13-12 win in the opener but then lost the next pair 9-3 and 3-2. In the Tuesday game the Astros scored twice in the seventh and held on for the victory. Ronel Blanco went 7.0 frames in the start with two earned on four hits and a walk.

As starter for game two Houston will go with Framber Valdez. So far Valdez is 7-5 with a 3.84 ERA in 15 starts. Valdez is 60-39 with a 3.45 ERA in 144 career games (122 starts).

Astros vs Marlins Pick Injury Notes

Marlins SP Ryan Weathers (finger) was transferred to the 60-day IL on Sunday.

Total Runs Facts

  • Each of the Marlins’ last six road games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • Each of the Astros’ last four night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last six games as underdogs.
  • The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last three games as favorites against NL East opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

  • Jose Altuve has recorded a Double in each of the Astros’ last three home games against the Marlins.
  • Alex Bregman has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Astros’ last four night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
  • Alex Bregman has scored at least one run in each of the Astros’ last eight games as favorites.
  • Framber Valdez has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Framber Valdez has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with the Astros as favorites.
  • Jeremy Pena has recorded a Single in each of his last six home appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with the Astros as home favorites against NL East opponents.
  • Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Astros as favorites against the Marlins.
  • Kyle Tucker has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Jose Altuve ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.309) this season.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Josh Bell has scored at least one run in four of his last five appearances against the Astros after playing the previous day.
  • Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances against AL West opponents.
  • Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last five games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jesus Sanchez has recorded three or more total bases in each of the Marlins’ last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Marlins’ last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in three of the Marlins’ last four games against opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Houston Astros rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.263).
  • The Houston Astros rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (633).
  • The Miami Marlins rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (73).
  • The Miami Marlins rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.281).

Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins Prediction

I might take a value-play stab on the Marlins. Probably not touching it, though. Hoeing didn’t pitch too badly on July 5 in his start against the White Sox, posting one earned on five hits and a walk in 3.0 innings during a loss. Hoeing has the capability to start this one out well, but he’s going to need some help from the bullpen and the bats.

On Tuesday the Marlins had one unfortunate inning on the scoreboard but otherwise did pretty well on the mound. Outside of Jazz Chisholm and Bryan De La Cruz (four hits, two runs and two RBI combined) however, there wasn’t much going on at the plate. If Miami can get the bats going Wednesday—and if the pitching staff follows along—I think they’ve got a shot at a W.

Andrew's Free Pick: Miami Marlins +235

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Andrew

Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

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