The Miami Marlins and the Houston Astros meet Wednesday in MLB action from Daikin Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Miami Marlins will send out Sandy Alcantara for the start here and Alcantara is 10-5 with a 3.89 ERA and 107 strikeouts this season. Houston will start Peter Lambert here and Lambert is 8-5 with a 3.03 ERA and 91 strikeouts this season.
Miami Marlins Recap
The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to shake off their 5-3 loss at the hands of the Astros last time out to sit at 52-50 this season. After this series, the Marlins will head home for a set against the San Diego Padres.
Marlins Lose 8 In A Row
Xavier Edwards has 109 hits with 13 doubles, 6 triples, 6 home runs and 37 RBIs while Otto Lopez has 130 hits with 27 doubles, 6 triples, 9 homers and 46 RBIs and Liam Hicks has added 88 hits with 9 doubles, 13 home runs and 58 RBIs. Connor Norby has 41 hits with 12 doubles, 4 home runs and 16 RBIs and Owen Caissie has 52 hits with 12 doubles, 12 homers and 50 RBIs. Jakob Marsee also has 65 hits with 11 doubles, 3 triples, 5 home runs and 25 RBIs this season.
Houston Astros Recap
The Houston Astros come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Marlins on Tuesday to sit at 48-55 this season. After this series, the Astros will head on the road for a series against the Chicago White Sox.
Astros Win Back-To-Back Games
Yordan Alvarez has 115 hits with 20 doubles, 31 home runs and 73 RBIs while Christian Walker has 85 hits with 19 doubles, 20 home runs and 58 RBIs on the year. Jose Altuve’s chipped in 70 hits with 14 doubles, 12 home runs and 28 RBIs and Isaac Paredes has 88 hits with 18 doubles, 12 home runs and 50 RBIs. Cam Smith also has 70 hits with 13 doubles, 12 home runs and 34 RBIs.
Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros Betting Trends: July 22, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Peter Lambert Record this season: 8-5 ERA: 3.03
- Home Record: 5-4
- Last 5 against Marlins: 1-0
Why the Houston Astros will win
- The Marlins have lost each of their last eight games.
- The Astros have won each of their last seven night games against the Marlins following a win.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games after playing the previous day.
- The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games against the Marlins following a win.
- The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight night games against the Marlins.
- The Astros have won the first inning in each of their last six Wednesday home games against NL East opponents.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games at Daikin Park.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara Record this season: 10-5 ERA: 3.89
- Road Record: 6-2
- Last 5 against Astros: 0-1
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Marlins have won eight of their last 10 games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
- The Astros have lost six of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in eight of their last 10 road games against AL West opponents.
- The Astros have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five home games against National League opponents following a home win.
- The Marlins have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight games against AL West opponents.
- The Marlins have led after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 games against AL West opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Six of the last seven games between the Marlins and Astros have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Marlins’ last five games as underdogs against the Astros have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of Sandy Alcantara’s last eight appearances as a starter.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in six of the last seven night games between the Marlins and Astros at Daikin Park.
Houston Astros Player Prop Facts
- Isaac Paredes has hit a home run in three of the Astros’ last four home games against NL opponents.
- Peter Lambert has recorded a win in each of his last six appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Peter Lambert has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances.
- Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 11 games as favorites against NL opponents.
- Yordan Alvarez ranks T1st in the league in Home Runs (33) this season.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Sandy Alcantara has recorded a win in five of his last six road appearances.
- Griffin Conine has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last eight games as underdogs.
- Sandy Alcantara has recorded five or more strikeouts in seven of his eight previous appearances against AL West opponents.
- Joe Mack has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
- Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (130) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Astros rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (451).
- The Astros rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (451).
- The Marlins rank 1st in the league for triples this season (24).
- The Marlins rank 1st in the league for triples this season (24).
Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros Prediction
I’m on the Marlins here. I think this is where the slide for Miami ends and I think that while Lambert’s pitched well, Alcantara is still a high-leverage option to get the job done for the fish. I look for Miami to salvage something from this series, so give me Miami here.