The Seattle Mariners are visiting the Houston Astros on Friday, May 23rd at the Daikin Park in the second game of this series, with the Astros having a 1-0 lead. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Mariners vs Astros Prediction. We will examine:
The Houston Astros’ recent form and player performance
The Seattle Mariners’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Houston Astros
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Seattle Mariners
Recent betting trends in games played between the Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros game
Houston Astros Preview
The Houston Astros have a 26-24 record this season and are sitting in second place in the AL West. The Astros have a 16-9 home record and 21-27 in over/under. They are coming off a 9-2 home victory over the Mariners, ending their previous two-game losing streak. Under is 7-3 in their last 10 games, and they are playing the Athletics and the Rays next.
The Astros have a .249 batting average this season, a .320 OBP, and a .383 slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 3.45 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Jeremy Pena leads the Astros with 56 hits, while Isaac Paredes leads the team in RBI with 29, adding a team-high 10 home runs. Jake Meyers is the team’s best hitter, with a .304 batting average.
Ryan Gusto (R) will take the mound for the Astros, and he has a 3-2 record, 4.65 ERA, and 1.52 WHIP. He has been weaker at home with a 5.68 ERA, and he is coming off his worst start of the season, where he gave up 7 runs in just 2.1 innings pitched against the Royals. This will be his first career start against the Mariners.
Seattle Mariners Preview
The Seattle Mariners have a 28-21 record this season and are sitting in first place in the AL West. The Mariners have a 15-10 road record and 27-20 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-9 road defeat by the Astros, and are 5-2 in their last 7 games. Under is 7-2 in their last 9 games, and they are playing the Nationals and the Twins next.
The Mariners have a .236 batting average this season, a .325 OBP, and a .398 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 3.74 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Julio Rodriguez leads the Mariners with 45 hits, while JP Crawford is the team’s best hitter with a .262 batting average. Cal Raleigh leads the team both in RBI with 33 and in home runs with 16.
Emerson Hancock (R) will take the mound for the Mariners, and he has a 1-2 record, 6.21 ERA, and 1.68 WHIP. He has been better on the road with a 2.91 ERA, and he is coming off a quality start against the Padres with one earned run in 4.2 innings pitched. His only start against the Astros back in 2023 was a shutout performance in only 2 innings pitched.
Why the Houston Astros will win
- The Astros have won each of their last nine Friday night games against AL West opponents.
- The Mariners have lost three of their last four games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last nine Friday games against AL West opponents.
- The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against AL West opponents.
- The Astros have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Seattle Mariners will win
- The Mariners have won each of their last five games as underdogs against AL West opponents following a loss.
- The Astros have lost each of their last seven games against AL West opponents following a win.
- The Mariners have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against the Astros.
- The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents.
- The Astros have lost the first inning in each of their last three home games against AL West opponents.
- The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games as home favorites against American League opponents.
- The Mariners have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven night games against the Astros at Daikin Park.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Mariners’ last five games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Four of the Astros’ last five home games against AL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last eight Friday games at Daikin Park.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last four games against AL West opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Astros rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.215).
- The Astros rank 2nd in the league for hits allowed this season (347).
- The Mariners rank 2nd in the league for walks this season (195).
- The Mariners rank 28th in the league for doubles this season (63).
Mariners vs Astros Prediction
The Mariners are 5-3 in their last 8 meetings against the Astros, and are 4-2 in their last 6 visits to Houston. Over is 3-1-1 in their last 4 meetings.
In this Mariners vs Astros Prediction, the Astros are coming as -125 home favorites. The Mariners have the better overall record, and both teams have almost identical home/away records. I don’t trust any of those starters, so I see no value on either side. Both starters have a combined 10.86 ERA, and their advanced stats show no sign of positive regression. Both teams are slightly better against righties, and average 9.1 runs combined, and yesterday’s game had 11 total runs. I expect another high-scoring game, so take the over 8.5 in this one.