The Seattle Mariners are visiting the San Diego Padres on Sunday, May 18th at the Petco Park in the third game of this series, with the Mariners having a 2-0 lead. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Mariners vs Padres Prediction. We will examine:
The San Diego Padres’ recent form and player performance
The Seattle Mariners’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the San Diego Padres
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Seattle Mariners
Recent betting trends in games played between the Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres game
San Diego Padres Preview
The San Diego Padres have a 27-17 record this season and are sitting in second place in the NL West. They have a 16-7 home record, and are 19-24 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 1-4 home defeat by the Mariners, having lost both games of this home series. Under is 3-0 in their last 3 games, and they are playing the Braves and the Blue Jays next.
The Padres have a .262 batting average this season, a .330 OBP, and a .398 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.36 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Manny Machado leads the Padres with 52 hits and a team-high .323 batting average. Fernando Tatis Jr leads the team both in RBI, with 26, and in home runs, with 11.
Michael King (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 4-1 record, 2.32 ERA, and 0.99 WHIP. He has been extremely good at home, with a 1.64 ERA in six home starts, and he has not given up more than two runs in his last six starts. Michael King is 0-2 with an ERA of 1.98 and 19 strikeouts in 4 appearances against the Mariners in his career.
Seattle Mariners Preview
The Seattle Mariners have a 25-19 record this season and are sitting in first place in the AL West. The Mariners have a 12-8 road record and 25-17 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-1 road victory over the Padres, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. Under is 4-0 in their last 4 games, and they are playing the Astros and the White Sox next.
The Mariners have a .239 batting average this season, a .326 OBP, and a .402 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 3.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Julio Rodriguez leads the Mariners with 42 hits, while JP Crawford is the team’s best hitter with a .270 batting average. Cal Raleigh leads the team both in RBI with 31 and in home runs with 15.
Bryan Woo (R) will take the mound for the Mariners, and he has a 4-1 record, 2.84 ERA, and 0.89 WHIP. He has been weaker on the road with a 4.02 ERA across five road starts, but he has two shutouts in his last three starts, with the most recent one being against the Yankees. In his only start against the Padres last season, he gave up two runs in 6.2 innings of work, as the Mariners won 6-2.
Why the San Diego Padres will win
- The Padres have won each of their last eight Sunday home games against AL West opponents.
- The Mariners have lost four of their last five games against NL West opponents following a win.
- The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last eight Sunday home games against AL West opponents.
- The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games following a road win.
- The Padres have led after 3 innings in five of their last six home day games.
- The Padres have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home day games.
Why the Seattle Mariners will win
- The Mariners have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs against the Padres.
- The Padres have lost five of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents following a loss.
- The Mariners have covered the run line each of their last six games at Petco Park against teams that held a winning record.
- The Padres have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last 10 games as favorites against American League opponents.
- The Mariners have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against National League opponents.
- The Mariners have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games at Petco Park against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Mariners have won the first inning in three of their last four games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Padres’ last seven day games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Nine of the Mariners’ last 10 day games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last nine day games against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last six day games against AL West opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Padres rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (303).
- The Padres rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.262).
- The Mariners rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (56).
- The Mariners rank 27th in the league for triples this season (2).
Mariners vs Padres Prediction
The Mariners are 9-2 in their last 11 meetings against the Padres, and have won their last four visits in San Diego in a dominant fashion, with a combined 19-5 score. They are up 2-0 in this series, having outscored the Padres by 9-2 runs. Under is 7-3-2 in their last 12 meetings.
In this Mariners vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -140 home favorites. The Padres are favored because they still have a better record this season, and they have the second-best home record in the National League. But the Mariners have been dominating them in this series, and are putting their best pitcher on the mound. Both teams score exactly 5.1 runs against righties, so this line feels a bit inflated towards the Padres.
With both pitchers being terrific this season, I will not pick a side and instead look for another low-scoring game. Both pitchers have a combined 5.16 ERA and have a WHIP below 1.00, and their deeper analytics do not show a negative regression coming. Both teams are a perfect 7-0 to the under in their last 7 games combined, and the two games of this series had a 5.5 average total runs. Take the under 7.5 in this one.