In this article, we will formulate a Marlins vs Astros Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, July 21st in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Houston Astros Preview
The Houston Astros have a 48-54 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the AL West. They have a 24-27 home record and are coming off an 8-5 home win against the Marlins. They will face the White Sox and the Angels next.
The Houston Astros have a .241 batting average this season, .315 OBP and .411 Slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 4.75 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s best hitter with a .324 batting average, leads the team in RBI with 75, and adds a team-high 33 home runs.
Tatsuya Imai (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Houston Astros, and he has a 5-4 record, 6.06 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
Miami Marlins Preview
The Miami Marlins have a 52-49 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL East. They have a 21-29 away record and are coming off a 5-8 road loss against the Astros. They will face the Padres and the Phillies next.
The Miami Marlins have a .252 batting average this season, .328 OBP and .408 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.05 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the team’s best hitter with a .335 batting average. Liam Hicks leads the team in RBI with 60, adding a team-high 14 home runs.
Tyler Phillips (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Miami Marlins, and he has a 2-4 record, 3.48 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.
Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros Betting Trends: July 21, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Tatsuya Imai Record this season: 5-4 ERA: 6.06
- Home Record: 2-3
- Last 5 against Marlins: –
Why the Houston Astros will win
- The Marlins have lost each of their last seven games.
- The Astros have won eight of their last nine games against the Marlins.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games after playing the previous day.
- The Astros have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games against NL East opponents.
- The Astros have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites against the Marlins.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games at Daikin Park.
- The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven night games against the Marlins.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Tyler Phillips Record this season: 2-4 ERA: 3.48
- Road Record: 0-3
- Last 5 against Astros: –
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Marlins have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
- The Astros have lost each of their last six home games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in eight of their last nine road games against AL West opponents.
- The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four home games against National League opponents following a home win.
- The Marlins have won the first inning in three of their last four games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
- The Marlins have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven games against AL West opponents.
- The Marlins have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games against AL West opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the last six games between the Marlins and Astros have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Marlins’ last four games as underdogs against the Astros have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Marlins’ last seven night games.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in five of Tatsuya Imai’s last six appearances as a starter.
Houston Astros Player Prop Facts
- Yordan Alvarez has hit at least one home run in five of the Astros’ last six games as favorites against NL opponents.
- Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 10 games as favorites against NL opponents.
- Yordan Alvarez ranks T1st in the league in Home Runs (33) this season.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Joe Mack has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
- Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances against AL West opponents.
- Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (130) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Astros rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (448).
- The Astros rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (448).
- The Marlins rank 1st in the league for triples this season (24).
- The Marlins rank 1st in the league for triples this season (24).
Marlins vs Astros Prediction
The Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 meetings against the Marlins and have won their last four meetings in Houston.
In this Marlins vs Astros Prediction, the Astros are coming as -125 home favorites. Yesterday’s game had 13 total runs and I also like the over in this one with two struggling pitchers on the mound. Imai has been terrible at home with a 7.92 ERA while Phillips has been in very bad form with a 6.75 ERA across his last three starts and also has a 6.53 road ERA. The Astros are averaging 6.1 runs per game against righties in their last 10 games, so I like the over 9 runs in this one.