The New York Mets and the Miami Marlins meet in an NL East division matchup in MLB action from LoanDepot Park on Friday. Let’s dive into the odds, injuries, pitching matchup, matchup history and trends and make a prediction for this game.
Odds
The Mets are listed as -115 road favorites while the Marlins are -105 home underdogs. The total for this game is set at 8 runs.
Pitching Matchup
David Peterson will start for the Mets and was 7-5 with a 3.83 ERA and 126 strikeouts last season. Jesus Luzardo will get the start for the Marlins and was 4-7 with a 3.32 ERA and 120 strikeouts last season.
Injuries
For the Mets, Justin Verlander and Elieser Hernandez are out indefinitely with shoulder injuries. For the Marlins, Steven Okert is out until mid-April with a groin injury.
Matchup History
New York’s 5-3 win in the series opener on March 30th, 2023, made it seven wins in the last nine head-to-head meetings for the Mets in this matchup.
Trends
New York is 5-2 in their last 7 games overall and 1-4 in their last 5 road games while the over is 11-0 in their last 11 games against a team with a left-handed starter. Miami is 12-29 in their last 41 home games and 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss while the over is 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team with a left-handed starter.
Pick
I’m backing the over here. We still managed to get over the number on Thursday despite a much tougher pitching matchup, and both of these starters had struggles last year. There was a reason that David Peterson couldn’t hold a spot in the Mets’ rotation, and Jesus Luzardo’s team record in his starts was just 4-14 last season and he struggled for the most part against the Mets. I think we could have another higher-scoring game even if it scrapes over the total so give me the over here.