In this article we will formulate a Marlins vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 3rd at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Miami Marlins are 16-17 this season after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 5-6 and 4-0. In game two, Miami scored two runs in the third inning and they pulled away in the middle innings for the shutout win. The Marlins recorded 10 hits in the game and they were led by Lopez, Edwards, Ramirez, and Norby, who all had one RBI. Meyer allowed one hit and zero earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Nardi closed out the game. Prior to this series, Miami won two out of three against the Dodgers, but lost two out of three against the Giants before that.
This season, Miami has a 3.85 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .219 opponent batting average, while they have scored 144 runs with a .252 batting average and a .333 on base percentage. Liam Hicks has led the Marlins with seven home runs and 29 RBIs, while Owen Caissie has added two home runs and 15 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Chris Paddack, who is 0-4 with a 6.11 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 28.0 innings pitched this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies are 13-20 this year after they lost game two by a score of 4-0 on Saturday afternoon. Philadelphia did next to nothing at the plate in this game and they never had a chance to mount a rally. The Phillies recorded one hit in the game and they were led by Stubbs, who went 1-2. Painter allowed seven hits and three earned runs over 5.0 innings for the loss, while Banks allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to this series, Philadelphia swept the Giants in three games, but lost two out of three against the Braves before that.
This season, Philadelphia has a 4.83 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP and a .279 opponent batting average, while they have scored 124 runs with a .223 batting average and a .298 on base percentage. Kyle Schwarber has led the Phillies with 11 home runs and 20 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added six home runs and 19 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Jesus Luzardo, who is 2-3 with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 34.1 innings pitched this year.
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as favorites after playing the previous day.
- The Marlins have won seven of their last eight Sunday games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight day games against National League opponents.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last five games.
- The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last six home day games.
- The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five day games.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Marlins have lost each of their last four games against NL East opponents following a win.
- The favorites have won each of the Phillies’ last six games.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as underdogs following a home win.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in four of their last five road games against the Marlins following a loss.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Marlins’ last four home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the Phillies’ last six day games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last six games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Marlins’ last nine games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in seven of his last 14 appearances with the Marlins as home underdogs.
- Chris Paddack has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances in day games.
- Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last 11 home games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Otto Lopez ranks T2nd in the league in Hits (43) this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in two of the Phillies’ last three games as favorites.
- Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances with the Phillies as favorites against NL East opponents.
- Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with the Phillies as road favorites.
- Kyle Schwarber ranks T4th in the league in Home Runs (11) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (8).
- The Marlins rank T2nd in the league for steals this season (36).
- The Phillies rank 30th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.279).
- The Phillies rank 30th in the league for hits allowed this season (327).
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction
Miami got elite pitching during their win on Saturday and they have won three of their last four games. The Marlins are 11-7 at home this year, while the Phillies are 5-10 on the road. Philadelphia snapped their winning streak on Saturday, but they have scored at least six runs in three of their last five. The Phillies are going with Luzardo, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last five outings, while Paddack has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five contests. I don’t really like either starter, despite some recent success, so I like the over in this game.