In this article, we will formulate a Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB matchup on Wednesday, August 19th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 69-58 record this season and are sitting in 2nd place in the NL East. They have a 34-30 home record and are coming off a 6-4 home win against the Marlins. They will face the Cardinals and the Mariners next.
The Philadelphia Phillies have a .240 batting average this season, a .312 OBP, and a .401 slugging percentage. The Phillies’ pitching staff has a 4.15 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Brandon Marsh leads the Phillies with a .272 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 74 and adds a team-high 37 home runs.
Aaron Nola (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 4-9 record, a 5.33 ERA, and a 1.45 WHIP.
Miami Marlins Preview
The Miami Marlins have a 64-63 record this season and are sitting in 3rd place in the NL East. They have a 26-38 road record and are coming off a 4-6 road loss against the Phillies. They will face the Nationals and the Red Sox next.
The Miami Marlins have a .250 batting average this season, a .327 OBP, and a .403 slugging percentage. The Marlins’ pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Otto Lopez leads the Marlins with a .308 batting average and a team-high 54 RBI, while Heriberto Hernandez adds a team-high 18 home runs.
Sandy Alcantara (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 13-7 record, a 3.43 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP.
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: August 19, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola Record this season: 4-9 ERA: 5.33
- Home Record: 0-4
- Last 5 against Marlins: 2-3
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Marlins have lost each of their last nine road games against teams that held a winning record.
- The home team has won seven of the last eight games between the Marlins and Phillies.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line each of their last six Wednesday night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in four of their last five games.
- The Phillies have won the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last 10 Wednesday night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara Record this season: 13-7 ERA: 3.43
- Road Record: 7-4
- Last 5 against Phillies: 2-3
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Phillies have lost four of their last six games as home favorites following a home win.
- The Marlins have won three of their last four Wednesday games as underdogs against National League opponents.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The road team has covered the run line in five of the Marlins’ last six games.
- The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five home games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Phillies’ last seven home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Marlins’ last six games as underdogs against the Phillies have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of Aaron Nola’s last 11 home appearances as a starter against the Marlins.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of Sandy Alcantara’s last six road appearances as a starter.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine home appearances against the Marlins.
- Bryson Stott has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 14 games as favorites against NL opponents.
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances at Citizens Bank Park against NL opponents that held a winning record.
- Luis Arraez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (153) this season.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Griffin Conine has hit a home run in three of the Marlins’ last four games as underdogs against the Phillies.
- Sandy Alcantara has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances against NL East opponents.
- Sandy Alcantara has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last seven road games.
- Otto Lopez ranks 2nd in the league in Hits (152) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1249).
- The Phillies are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
- The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (27).
- The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for steals this season (130).
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction
The Marlins are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings against the Phillies but are 1-4 in their last 5 visits in Philadelphia.
In this Marlins vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -120 home favorites. I like the Marlins in this one with Sandy on the mound, who has been scorching-hot lately, having given up just one run in his last four starts. On the flip side, Aaron Nola has been shaky at best this season and has been terrible at home with a 0-4 record and 6.23 ERA. The Marlins have a better bullpen this season and I like them as road dogs in this spot. Take the Marlins on the moneyline.