The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Miami Marlins meet Sunday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. This will be the final installment in a four-game weekend series. Here’s a Marlins vs Pirates prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Marlins vs Pirates pick.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
Pittsburgh played a couple of very close games in the first two installments of this opening series against the Marlins. First came a 5-4 loss on Thursday. The Pirates held a 4-2 lead going into the bottom of the eighth inning in that one but ultimately gave it away. Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds and Nick Gonzales (homer) each had two RBI in the defeat.
Friday in game two was a better outcome for the Pirates. Pittsburgh managed two runs in both the fourth and fifth innings, hanging on for a 4-3 win in the end. The Pirates gave up a couple in the bottom of the ninth amid more bullpen struggles, though. Oneil Cruz notched a homer, two RBI and two runs in the win.
In game three on Saturday, the Pirates posted nine team hits in a 5-4 defeat. Pittsburgh got RBI from Joey Bart, Jack Suwinski and Adam Frasier but couldn’t overcome the deficit in a lengthy 12-inning marathon. Pittsburgh will play the Tampa Bay Rays in their next series.
Starter for the Pirates on Sunday will be Andrew Heaney. Last season Heaney went 5-14 with a 4.28 ERA in 32 games (31 starts). Heaney is 51-62 in his MLB career with a 4.45 ERA in 203 games (185 starts) total.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
Over on the Marlins’ side, they scored three runs over the final two innings in their Thursday win. Miami got one RBI from four different players and spread their seven hits out among seven different bats. Starter Sandy Alcantara went 4.2 frames with two hits, four walks and two earned runs in the eventual win.
On Friday Miami was pretty quiet at the plate until the bottom of the ninth, and got buried by four errors along the way. The Marlins; Otto Lopez notched a two-run homer though, and Graham Pauley added the other RBI. Connor Gillispie put up 5.0 innings in the start with three earned on four hits and four walks.
On Saturday the Marlins got multiple hits from four different players, including three with three each. Miami’s Dane Myers had three hits, two runs and an RBI in the victory. After this series Miami will host the New York Mets in their next set.
As starter for Sunday Miami will send out Max Meyer. Last season Meyer notched a 3-5 record with a 5.68 ERA in 11 starts. Over his career Meyer has 13 starts with a 3-6 record and a 5.86 ERA overall.
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Pirates have lost each of their last six day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Marlins have won six of their last seven games as underdogs.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last seven games.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites.
- The Marlins have won the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Marlins have lost each of their last seven games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Pirates have won five of their last six road games after going to extra innings.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last seven games after playing the previous day after going to extra innings.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have lost the first inning in four of their last five games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Six of the last seven games between the Pirates and Marlins at LoanDepot Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Pirates’ last five games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last nine Sunday games.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Marlins’ last 12 day games at LoanDepot Park.
Marlins vs Pirates Prediction
I’ll take a stab on the Marlins here, but in reality I’m likely not touching this one. Meyer is coming off a 1-2 effort over five spring starts this year, hitting a 3.21 ERA along the way. He gave up 13 hits in 14.0 innings. As for Heaney, he had some struggles in Spring Training with a 9.49 ERA and an 0-3 run across four starts. The real test here will be the bullpens, though—especially for Pittsburgh.
On Saturday the Marlins didn’t do too badly at the plate with their 13 team hits. The long game cost them several arms in the bullpen however (six, to be exact) so it’d be nice to get a lengthy start from Meyer in this one. Five innings would be nice, with a two or three brief appearances from the bullpen. The defense will need to keep it clean and avoid the errors in an ideal situation. Offensively, if the Miami bats can keep it going they’ll provide some cushion regardless, so I like the Marlins to eke it out.