In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Braves Prediction for this MLB matchup on Monday, July 6th in the fourth game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Atlanta Braves Preview
The Atlanta Braves have a 52‑36 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL East. They have a 27‑17 home record and are coming off a 9‑10 home defeat against the Mets. They will face the Pirates and the Cardinals next.
The Braves have a .248 batting average this season, .313 OBP and .412 Slugging percentage. Atlanta’s pitching staff has a 3.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Michael Harris II is the team’s best hitter with a .302 batting average. Matt Olson leads the team in RBI with 54, adding a team‑high 22 home runs.
Reynaldo Lopez (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves, and he has a 4‑1 record, 3.31 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
New York Mets Preview
The New York Mets have a 37‑53 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL East. They have a 18‑29 road record and are coming off a 10‑9 road win against the Braves. They will face the Royals and the Red Sox next.
The Mets have a .231 batting average this season, .300 OBP and .377 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.29 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Juan Soto is the team’s best hitter with a .299 batting average, also adding a team‑high 18 home runs. Bo Bichette leads the team in RBI with 50.
Freddy Peralta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 5‑7 record, 4.81 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves Betting Trends: July 6, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez Record this season: 4-1 ERA: 3.31
- Home Record: 3-0
- Last 5 against Mets: 1-1
Why the Atlanta Braves will win
- The Mets have lost each of their last eight night games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Braves have won eight of their last nine night games at Truist Park following a home loss.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last four home games against the Mets.
- The Mets have lost the first inning in four of their last five games as road underdogs.
- The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games as road underdogs.
- The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games against NL East opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta Record this season: 5-7 ERA: 4.81
- Road Record: 2-4
- Last 5 against Braves: 3-1
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Braves have lost nine of their last 13 games as favorites.
- The Mets have won each of their last four Monday night games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
- The Braves have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against the Mets following a loss.
- The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last six Monday night games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
- The Mets have led after 3 innings in nine of their last 12 games against the Braves.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Braves’ last eight night games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Mets’ last five night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of Reynaldo Lopez’s last six appearances as a starter.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Mets’ last eight Monday games at Truist Park.
Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts
- Michael Harris has hit a home run in each of the Braves’ last two night games.
- Reynaldo Lopez has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last eight home appearances against NL East opponents.
- Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 23 home appearances against the Mets.
- Michael Harris is one of only five players to hit over .300 and have 45+ RBIs this season.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Freddy Peralta has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last seven road appearances against NL East opponents.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against NL East opponents.
- Mark Vientos has hit at least one home run in three of his last four road appearances against the Braves.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances against the Braves.
- Juan Soto ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.407) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Braves rank 3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (664).
- The Braves rank 3rd in the league for runs allowed this season (335).
- The Mets rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (108).
- The Mets rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.300).
Mets vs Braves Prediction
Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings but the Braves are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Atlanta.
In this Mets vs Braves Prediction, the Braves are coming as -130 home favorites. Even though they won yesterday, I don’t trust the Mets, so this is a Braves stop to bounce back. Peralta has given up 15 runs across his last two road starts, while Lopez has given up just one run in each of his last two starts. On top of that, the Braves have the best bullpen in baseball and the 7th-best offense, as opposed to the Mets’ 27th. Take the Braves in this one.