In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB matchup on Wednesday, September 9th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Miami Marlins Preview
The Miami Marlins have a 72-74 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL East. They have a 43-31 home record and are coming off a 5-7 home loss against the Mets. They will face the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks next.
The Miami Marlins have a .247 batting average this season, .325 OBP and .399 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.02 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the team’s best hitter with a .301 batting average, while leading the team in RBI with 64, while Heriberto Hernandez adds a team-high 24 home runs.
Janson Junk (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 6-9 record, 4.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.
New York Mets Preview
The New York Mets have a 67-78 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL East. They have a 33-38 road record and are coming off a 7-5 road win against the Marlins. They will face the Yankees and the Orioles next.
The New York Mets have a .237 batting average this season, .307 OBP and .393 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.12 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Carson Benge is the team’s best hitter with a .274 batting average. Bo Bichette leads the team in RBI with 72, while Juan Soto adds a team-high 24 home runs.
Robert Stock (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 1-3 record, 5.81 ERA and 1.75 WHIP.
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: September 9, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Janson Junk Record this season: 6-9 ERA: 4.00
- Home Record: 3-4
- Last 5 against Mets: 1-0
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Marlins have won seven of their last eight games against the Mets following a home loss.
- The Mets have lost seven of their last eight road games against the Marlins following a road win.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Wednesday road games against NL East opponents.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last six Wednesday home games.
- The Marlins have led after 5 innings in three of their last four night games against the Mets at LoanDepot Park.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Robert Stock Record this season: 1-3 ERA: 5.81
- Road Record: 1-1
- Last 5 against Marlins: 0-1
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Marlins have lost each of their last five games as favorites.
- The Mets have won each of their last seven games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against NL opponents.
- The road team has covered the run line in each of the last five games between the Mets and Marlins.
- The Mets have won the first inning in each of their last three road games.
- The Mets have led after 3 innings in four of their last five road games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Marlins’ last five games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Mets’ last four road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Mets’ last nine Wednesday games against NL opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in nine of Janson Junk’s last 10 appearances as a starter.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Graham Pauley has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Janson Junk has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
- Janson Junk has recorded four or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
- Javier Sanoja has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last nine games.
- Otto Lopez ranks 2nd in the league in Hits (171) this season.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Juan Soto has hit at least one home run in four of his last five road appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 25 appearances against the Marlins.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (31).
- The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for steals this season (149).
- The Mets rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.307).
- The Mets rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (187).
Mets vs Marlins Prediction
The Mets are 6-3 in their last 9 meetings against the Marlins and have won their last two visits in Miami.
In this Mets vs Marlins Prediction, the Marlins are coming as -120 home favorites. I like the Marlins in a bounce-back spot today as they are looking to avoid a series sweep at home. Janson Junk takes the mound for Miami and has been scorching-hot lately, having given up one run or less in each of his last four starts and has a 3.62 home ERA. On the flip side, Robert Stock has been terrible this season with a 1.75 WHIP and has a 8.64 road ERA. Take the Marlins to win this one at home.