Mets vs Marlins Prediction 4/7/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Monday, April 7th at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 6-3 this year after they swept Toronto in three games by scores of 5-0, 3-2, and 2-1. In that game three win, the Mets scored two runs in the third inning and they were able to hold on for the win late in the game. New York recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Alonso and Nimmo, who both had one RBI in the win. The Mets started Peterson, who allowed three hits and one earned run over 4.2 innings, while Kranick, Garrett, Minter, and Diaz threw shutout innings the rest of the way. 

Prior to that series, the Mets won two out of three against the Marlins and lost two out of three against the Astros. The New York pitching staff has a 1.91 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a .201 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 33 runs with a .197 batting average and a .282 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with three home runs and 11 RBIs, while Brandon Nimmo has added two home runs and five RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Kodai Senga, who is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP over 5.0 innings pitched this season. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 5-4 this season after they split two games with the Braves by scores of 0-10 and 4-0, as game three was postponed due to weather. In game two on Saturday, Miami scored twice in the first, once in the fourth, and once in the seventh in the shutout win. The Marlins recorded 10 hits in the game and they were led by Mervis, who went 3-5 with two home runs and three RBIs in the win. Miami started Quantrill, who allowed just four hits over 5.0 innings, while Henriquez, Veneziano, Faucher, and Bender threw four shutout innings out of the bullpen. 

Prior to that series, the Marlins lost two out of three against the Mets and won three out of four against the Pirates. The Miami pitching staff has a 3.81 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .230 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 33 runs with a .238 batting average and a .308 on base percentage this season. Otto Lopez has led Miami with two home runs and seven RBIs, while Matt Mervis has added two home runs and four RBIs on the year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is TBD, as Alcantara was supposed to start on Sunday, but was placed on the paternity list on Sunday afternoon. 

Why the Mets will beat the Marlins

• The Marlins have lost each of their last 12 night games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Mets have won each of their last 10 Monday night games.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight night games against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight Monday games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last nine night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Mets’ last nine games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Marlins’ last five road games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last six games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Marlins’ last nine night games against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Kodai Senga has recorded a win in four of his last five home appearances against NL opponents.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Brandon Nimmo has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games against the Marlins.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Juan Soto has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances at Citi Field.
• Jesse Winker has recorded a Single in each of his last six home appearances against the Marlins after playing the previous day.
• Kodai Senga has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last eight home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last seven night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jonah Bride has hit at least one home run in three of his last eight road appearances.
• Jonah Bride has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five road appearances.
• Jesus Sanchez has scored a run in four of the Marlins’ last five games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one Single in each of the Marlins’ last seven night games against opponents that held a winning record.

Mets vs Marlins Prediction 

New York comes into this matchup looking for their fifth win in a row and they have allowed a total of three runs in their last three games. The Mets are 3-0 at home this season and already have a series win over this Miami team. The Marlins will have the rest advantage after not playing on Sunday, but it is concerning that they don’t have a plan in place for their starting pitcher. Senga was solid in his first outing of the season and this New York pitching staff has been elite through nine games. Take the Mets -1.5 here.