The Miami Marlins and the New York Mets meet on Wednesday in MLB action from Citi Field. This will be the final installment in a three-game series this week. Here’s a Mets vs Marlins prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Mets vs Marlins pick.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Marlins did well in their opening series of the 2025 season versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. Miami took a loss 4-3 in game two, but won the other three 5-4, 5-4 and 3-2 to eke out the series victory. The Marlins didn’t fare as well in the Mets matchup, losing games one and three (bookended around a 4-2 win) in that series. Over the weekend, Miami was blown out by the Atlanta Braves 10-0 on Friday but struck back with a 4-0 shutout in game two. The rubber match was postponed to August, thanks to bad weather. On Monday, versus the Mets, Miami gave up nine hits in a 2-0 shutout loss. Xavier Edwards managed a walk and two hits, while starting pitcher Valente Bellozo logged 3.2 frames with one earned on five hits and two walks.
In game two on Tuesday, the Marlins posted seven this and two errors in a 10-5 loss. Starting pitcher Connor Gillispie lasted 4.0 innings with two earned runs on three hits and a walk.
In the starter slot for the Wednesday finale, the Marlins will send out Max Meyer. This year, Meyer is 0-1 with a 3.09 ERA after his first two starts. Over his career, Meyer is 3-7 with a 5.42 ERA in 15 starts total.
New York Mets Betting Preview
Over on the Mets’ side, they kicked off their season with a set versus the Houston Astros. New York won 3-1 in game two but lost the other pair 3-1 and 2-1. After their first series win versus the Marlins last week, the Mets would meet up with the Toronto Blue Jays in their weekend set. New York did well in that matchup, taking a three-game sweep with wins 5-0, 3-2, and 2-1. On Monday, the Mets scored once in the third and once more in the eighth during the shutout victory. Tyrone Taylor had two hits and an RBI, while Juan Soto had two hits, one walk, and one RBI of his own. Kodai Senga went 5.0 frames with five hits, two walks, and four strikeouts in the starting pitcher role.
In the Tuesday game, New York logged 13 team hits and scored four runs in the fifth inning alone. Starling Marte bagged two hits and two RBI, while Francisco Lindor had two RBI, two runs, and a homer.
Tylor Megill will take the mound for the Mets on Wednesday for the finale. This year over his pair of starts, Megill has two wins with a nice 0.87 ERA in 10.1 innings total. Over his career, Megill is 23-21 with a 4.45 ERA in 76 games (69 starts).
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Mets have won each of their last 11 games as home favorites.
- The Marlins have lost each of their last six day games against NL East opponents.
- The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Mets have led after 3 innings in nine of their last 10 Wednesday games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in 11 of their last 12 road games against National League opponents.
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Marlins have won three of their last four games as underdogs following a road loss.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in five of their last six road games after playing the previous day.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last nine day games following a home win.
- The Marlins have won the first inning in four of their last five day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The Marlins have led after 3 innings in three of their last four road day games.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Mets’ last six day games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Five of the Marlins’ last six day games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Mets’ last eight games against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last four day games against NL East opponents.
Mets vs Marlins Prediction
I’ll lean toward the Mets, but the line’s probably too thick to mess with. Sure, it’s early on in the season. That said, Megill’s returns over his first two starts have been great. In that pair (both wins), he’s pitched 10.1 innings, five hits, four walks, 10 strikeouts, and just one earned run on the card. Megill last pitched April 4 versus Toronto, notching 5.1 clean frames, two hits, and three walks. As for Meyer, he was very good in his debut versus the Pirates (5.2 innings; one earned) and not terrible in his loss to Atlanta (6.0 innings; three earned) on April 4.
The Mets had a couple of shaky innings on the mound Tuesday, but the game was essentially over by the end of the seventh as Miami ran out of steam. The bullpen backed up starter Clay Holmes with 3.2 innings, one earned, two hits, and no walks. Another good pitching outing like that, and New York will be in a great spot.