In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 27th at the loanDepot park in the second game of this series, with the Marlins having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Miami Marlins Preview
The Miami Marlins have a 78-82 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the NL East. The Marlins have a 37-42 home record and are 81-74 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-6 road defeat by the Marlins, and have three consecutive losses.
The Marlins have a .251 batting average this season, .315 OBP and .395 slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.62 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Xavier Edwards leads the Marlins with 156 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .283 batting average. He also adds a team-high 25 home runs, while Otto Lopez leads the team in RBI, with 77.
Eury Pérez (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 7-5 record, 4.20 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
New York Mets Preview
The New York Mets have an 82-78 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL East. The Mets have a 33-46 road record and are 76-76 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-2 home win over the Mets, that ended their two-game losing streak.
The Mets have a .250 batting average this season, .326 OBP and .429 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.05 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Francisco Lindor leads the Mets with 170 hits, while Pete Alonso leads the team in batting average with .271. He also adds a team-high 124 RBI, while Juan Soto adds team-high 43 home runs.
Clay Holmes (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 11-8 record, 3.66 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: September 27, 2025
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Eury Perez Record this season: 7-5 ERA: 4.20
- Home Record: 3-2
- Last 5 against Mets: 0-2
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Mets have lost each of their last nine day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have won five of their last six games as underdogs against the Mets.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last 10 day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games.
- The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have won the first inning in four of their last five day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Clay Holmes Record this season: 11-8 ERA: 3.66
- Road Record: 6-6
- Last 5 against Marlins: 1-1
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Marlins have lost 13 of their last 14 games against the Mets following a home win.
- The Mets have won 12 of their last 13 games against the Marlins following a road loss.
- The Mets have covered the run line in four of their last five games following a loss.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as home underdogs against NL East opponents following a win.
- The Mets have led after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 day games against the Marlins at LoanDepot Park.
- The Marlins have lost the first inning in four of their last five games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
- The Mets have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Mets’ last seven day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Four of the Marlins’ last five games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last six games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Mets’ last eight games as favorites.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven home appearances after playing the previous day.
- Kyle Stowers has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Marlins as home underdogs.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last five games.
- Pete Alonso has recorded a Double in each of the Mets’ last four games as road favorites.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 21 games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.396) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Marlins rank 27th in the league for home runs this season (154).
- The Marlins rank T4th in the league for triples this season (28).
- The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (149).
- The Mets are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
Mets vs Marlins Prediction
The Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings against the Mets, but both teams are tied 2-2 wins in their last 4 meetings in Miami.
The Mets have dug themselves are hole with their recent losing streak and are now tied with the Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot, but they are falling off the picture, as they are losing the tie-breaker. Which means they need to win both games and hope that the Reds don’t. Holmes has been in good form for the Mets lately, but he is up against Perez, who has been excellent at home for the Marlins, with a 2.63 ERA, and coming off back-to-back shutouts. I expect both pitchers to suppress the opposing offenses and keep this a low-scoring game. Take the under in this one.