In this article, we will formulate a Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 20th at loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Miami Marlins are 56-97 this year and they have lost five of their last six games. Miami is coming off of a series loss against the Dodgers, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Marlins lost three out of four against the Nationals, lost all three against the Pirates, and split four games with the Phillies. Miami is 4-10 in their last 14 games and they are last in the NL East.
The Miami pitching staff has a 4.84 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .258 opponent batting average. The Marlins’ offense has scored 586 runs with a .242 batting average and a .297 on-base percentage. Jake Burger is batting .243 with 27 home runs and 67 RBI’s for the Marlins this season.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
The Atlanta Braves are 83-70 this season and they have lost three of their last five games. Atlanta is coming off of a series win against Cincinnati, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Braves split four games with the Dodgers, split two games with the Nationals, and lost a makeup game with the Reds. Atlanta is 6-5 in their last 11 games and they are third in the NL East.
The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.54 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .239 opponent batting average. The Braves’ offense has scored 668 runs with a .242 batting average and a .308 on-base percentage. Marcell Ozuna is batting .306 with 38 home runs and 101 RBI’s for the Braves this season.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Valente Bellozo, who is 2-4 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 58.1 innings pitched this season. Bellozo has allowed one earned run or fewer in two of his last three starts. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Charlie Morton, who is 8-8 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 155.0 innings pitched this year. Morton has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts.
Why the Braves will beat the Marlins
- The Marlins have lost each of their last nine night games against the Braves following a home loss.
- The Braves have won 10 of their last 11 night games against the Marlins following a road win.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games against teams that held a winning record.
- The favorites have covered the run line in five of the Braves’ last six games.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against NL East opponents.
- The Marlins have lost the first inning in each of their last four night games against NL East opponents.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against NL East opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Braves’ last seven games as favorites against the Marlins have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Marlins’ last six home games has gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last 11 road games against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last four games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Otto Lopez has scored at least one run in each of the Marlins’ last five home games.
- Jake Burger has hit a home run in four of the Marlins’ last seven night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Jake Burger has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Marlins’ last four games as underdogs against the Braves.
- Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last six home games.
- Otto Lopez has recorded at least one Single in each of the Marlins’ last six games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
- Otto Lopez has recorded at least one total base in each of the Marlins’ last six games as underdogs.
Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts
- Charlie Morton has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances.
- Ozzie Albies has recorded a Double in each of his last three road appearances against NL opponents.
- Michael Harris has scored at least one run in each of the Braves’ last seven road games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Michael Harris has hit at least one home run in five of the Braves’ last six road games against NL opponents.
- Jorge Soler has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last eight road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Ramon Laureano has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
- Matt Olson has recorded at least one Single in each of the Braves’ last seven games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
- Ramon Laureano has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Braves’ last nine games as road favorites.
- Charlie Morton has recorded a win in seven of his last eight Friday night appearances against NL teams that held a losing record.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Miami Marlins rank 30th in the league for walks this season (372).
- The Miami Marlins rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.297).
- The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1462).
- The Atlanta Braves rank T29th in the league for steals this season (64).
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
The Braves come into this series trailing in the NL Wild Card race and they need to pick up every win that they possibly can. The Braves are 41-37 on the road this season, while the Marlins are just 29-49 at home. Miami has been one of the worst teams in the MLB this season, but Bellozo has been pretty good over his last three starts. The Braves are turning to Charlie Morton, who has actually been very good over the last few weeks. I like what I have seen from Morton recently and I am going to take the Braves to win by a couple of runs.