MLB Picks

Miami Marlins vs NY Mets Prediction 5-18-24 Picks

NY Mets (20-23) vs. Miami Marlins (13-32)
May 18, 2024 4:10 pm EDT
The Line: Miami Marlins +116 / NY Mets -137; Over/Under: +7.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The New York Mets and the Miami Marlins meet Saturday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. Here’s a Miami Marlins vs NY Mets Prediction. This will be the second installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The Mets took on the Philadelphia Phillies in their early-week series. New York didn’t do very well in that one, dropping three games 5-4, 4-0 and 10-5 before a 6-5 win in the finale. On Friday versus the Marlins, the Mets took a blowout loss 8-0. Starter Christian Scott finished with 4.0 innings, four earned runs, seven hits and a walk.

For the starter gig in the Saturday game, the Mets will go with Luis Severino. This year Severino is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 41 Ks in 45.0 innings over eight starts. Severino is 56-39 with a 3.74 ERA over 149 career games (133 starts).

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

Over on the Marlins’ side, they played the Detroit Tigers this week. Miami lost the Monday opener of that set 6-5, but then came back for wins 1-0 and 2-0 in the next pair. On Friday the Marlins got 6.0 clean frames from Jesus Luzardo on five hits, no walks and six strikeouts.

It’ll be Braxton Garrett in the starting pitcher role for the Marlins on Saturday. This year Garrett has just one start, going 5.1 innings with five earned runs. Garrett is 14-17 with a 3.94 ERA in 59 career games (57 starts).

Mets vs Marlins Injury Notes

Mets LF Brandon Nimmo was scratched from the lineup prior to Thursday’s game versus Philadelphia. SP Kodai Senga (shoulder) is reportedly improving well in his rehabilitation.

Total Runs Facts

  • Each of the Marlins’ last seven games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Each of the Mets’ last six road games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last five games as favorites against NL East opponents.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last four games between the Mets and Marlins at LoanDepot Park.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

  • Jazz Chisholm has hit a home run in two of the Marlins’ last three games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • Josh Bell has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Marlins’ last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
  • Bryan De La Cruz has scored at least one run in four of the Marlins’ last five day games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Braxton Garrett has recorded five or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Josh Bell has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 22 appearances with his team as an underdog against the Mets.
  • Avisail Garcia has recorded at least one total base in each of his last six appearances at LoanDepot Park.
  • Josh Bell has recorded a Double in four of his last five home appearances against the Mets.
  • Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances against the Mets.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

  • Francisco Lindor has hit at least one home run in three of the Mets’ last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one RBI in six of the Mets’ last seven games as road favorites against NL opponents.
  • J.D. Martinez has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last four appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL East opponents.
  • Luis Severino has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL East opponents.
  • Brandon Nimmo has scored at least one run in each of his last four appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 11 Saturday games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets’ last seven games as favorites.
  • Luis Severino has recorded a win in three of his four previous appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL East opponents .
  • Francisco Lindor has recorded a Double in three of the Mets’ last four day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Miami Marlins vs NY Mets Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Mets. Severino had a spotty start versus the Rays on May 5, going 5.0 innings with four earned on four hits and six walks. In his last outing Severino was better however, giving up two earned in 5.0 frames. As for Garrett, he gave up five in 5.1 innings on five hits and two walks in his only start this year.

On Friday the Mets gave up four runs in the second inning and ended up getting out-hit 13-6. New York needs a good bounce-back effort Saturday, but I think they’re in line for it.

Andrew's Free Pick: New York Mets -137

Need More? Get Premium Picks

Andrew

Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

Related Articles

Back to top button