The New York Mets and the Miami Marlins meet Friday in MLB action from Target Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The New York Mets did not have a starting pitcher announced at the time that this article was posted. The Miami Marlins will start Eury Perez here and Perez is 2-6 with a 5.33 ERA and 58 strikeouts this season. In his career, Perez is 0-3 with a 10.00 ERA and 13 strikeouts against the Mets.
New York Mets Recap
The New York Mets come into this game looking to add on to their 2-1 win over the Washington Nationals last time out to sit at 22-28 this season. After this series, the Mets will head home for a series against the Cincinnati Reds.
Mets Snap Two-Game Losing Streak
Luis Robert Jr. has 19 hits including 2 home runs and 8 RBIs while Juan Soto has 38 hits with 4 doubles, 9 home runs and 20 RBIs. Brett Baty has 36 hits with 7 doubles, a triple, 3 home runs and 21 RBIs while Francisco Lindor has 21 hits with 2 doubles and a pair of triples as well. Marcus Semien also has 41 hits with 7 doubles, 3 home runs and 18 RBIs as well this season. Bo Bichette also has 46 hits with 6 doubles, 5 home runs and 27 RBIs as well this season. Francisco Alvarez has also added 27 hits with 5 doubles and 4 home runs this season.
Miami Marlins Recap
The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss at the hands of the Atlanta Braves last time out by a final score of 9-3 to sit at 22-29 this season. After this series, the Marliners will head on the road for a series against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Marlins Lose 3 In A Row
Xavier Edwards has 60 hits with 8 doubles, 3 triples, 6 home runs and 19 RBIs while Otto Lopez has 68 hits with 13 doubles, 2 triples, 4 homers and 21 RBIs. Agustin Ramirez has 26 hits with 5 doubles, 2 home runs and 14 RBIs and Liam Hicks has added 44 hits with 4 doubles, 9 home runs and 42 RBIs. Connor Norby has 33 hits with 9 doubles, 4 home runs and 14 RBIs and Owen Caissie has 25 hits with 6 doubles, 4 homers and 20 RBIs. Jakob Marsee also has 37 hits with 5 doubles, 3 triples, 3 home runs and 14 RBIs this season.
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: May 22, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Eury Perez Record this season: 2-6 ERA: 5.33
- Home Record: 2-2
- Last 5 against Mets: 0-3
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Mets have lost nine of their last 10 games as road favorites against NL East opponents following a road win.
- The Marlins have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against the Mets following a loss.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Friday games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Mets following a loss.
- The Marlins have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games against the Mets.
- The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Tobias Myers Record this season: 0-1 ERA: 3.41
- Road Record: 0-1
- Last 5 against Marlins: 1-0
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Marlins have lost seven of their last eight night games against NL East opponents.
- The favorites have won each of the Marlins’ last six games at LoanDepot Park.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games following a home loss.
- The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Marlins’ last five games.
- The Mets have won the first inning in each of their last three night games against the Marlins.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Marlins’ last nine games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Mets’ last four games as favorites against the Marlins have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Marlins’ last 13 games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Mets’ last 10 night games against NL East opponents.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Xavier Edwards has hit a home run in four of the Marlins’ last seven home games.
- Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last 18 home games against NL East opponents.
- Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (68) this season.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Juan Soto has hit at least one home run in four of the Mets’ last five night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 20 appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Marlins rank 1st in the league for steals this season (60).
- The Marlins rank T2nd in the league for triples this season (10).
- The Mets rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.358).
- The Mets rank T28th in the league for doubles this season (67).
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Prediction
I’m on the under in this one. This is a game between two teams that I’m not overly trusting in offensively right now, and two starters in Peralta and Perez that are solid despite Perez’s struggles this season and Peralta’s lack of strikeouts. I think this is a 3-2 or 4-3 kind of game so give me the under in this one.