In this article we will formulate a Miami Marlins vs NY Mets prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 19th at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Marlins Look for Better Luck in the Second Half
The Miami Marlins are 33-63 this year and they have lost five of their last six games. Miami is coming off of a series loss against Cincinnati, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Marlins were swept by the Astros in three games, won two out of three against the White Sox, and lost all three against the Red Sox. Miami is 3-10 in their last 13 games and they are last in the NL East.
The Miami pitching staff has a 4.60 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a .254 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 336 runs with a .234 batting average and a .284 on base percentage. Josh Bell is batting .228 with nine home runs and 39 RBI’s for the Marlins this season. Miami has allowed at least six runs in four of their last five games.
Mets Look to Continue Solid Play
The New York Mets are 49-46 this season and they have won five of their last six games. New York is coming off of a series win against Colorado, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Mets swept the Nationals in three games, split four games with the Pirates, and split four games with the Nationals. New York is 7-2 in their last nine games and they are third in the NL East, four games behind Atlanta for second.
The New York pitching staff has a 4.23 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a .236 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 465 runs with a .250 batting average and a .322 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .240 with 19 home runs and 51 RBI’s for the Mets this season. New York has scored at least six runs in five of their last six games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Edward Cabrera, who is 1-3 with an 8.26 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP over 28.1 innings pitched this year. Cabrera has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last five appearances. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Sean Manaea, who is 6-3 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 96.1 innings pitched this season. Manaea has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts.
Why the Mets will beat the Marlins
- The Mets have won 15 of their last 16 games against the Marlins following a loss.
- The Marlins have lost each of their last seven games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Mets have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against the Marlins following a loss.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in 14 of their last 16 night games against NL East opponents following a win.
- The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last five night games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last 15 night games.
- The Marlins have lost the first inning in each of their last three night games.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Marlins’ last nine home games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Mets’ last five night games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last nine road games.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last nine games as home underdogs.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in three of the Marlins’ last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Josh Bell has recorded a Double in four of the Marlins’ last five home games against the Mets.
- Josh Bell has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last eight home appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Jazz Chisholm has scored at least one run in each of his last four home appearances against NL opponents.
- Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one Single in each of the Marlins’ last six night games.
- Josh Bell has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances with his team as a home underdog against the Mets.
- Josh Bell has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 15 appearances with his team as a home underdog against the Mets.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Brandon Nimmo has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances at LoanDepot Park.
- Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five road appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Brandon Nimmo has scored at least one run in each of his last five road appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Jose Iglesias has recorded a Single in each of his last six appearances against the Marlins.
- J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one hit in each of his nine previous road appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL East opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Miami Marlins rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (78).
- The Miami Marlins rank 30th in the league for walks this season (205).
- The New York Mets rank 29th in the league for walks allowed this season (362).
- The New York Mets rank T3rd in the league for doubles this season (176).
Miami Marlins vs NY Mets Prediction
New York finished the first half of the season playing some great baseball and they are trying to get into the race for the NL East, but Philadelphia still has a very comfortable lead. The Mets are 23-20 on the road this year, while the Marlins are just 18-31 at home. Miami has really struggled to find consistent pitching this season, which has a lot to do with injuries, but they are starting Cabrera, who has been pretty bad this season. New York will go with Manaea, who has been very solid over the last two weeks, so my Miami Marlins vs NY Mets prediction is for the Mets to win by at least two runs.