In this article we will formulate a Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 10th at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in this series.
Marlins Looking for Win #11
The Miami Marlins are 10-29 this season and they have lost five of their last six games. Miami is coming off of a series loss against the Dodgers, where they lost all three games and were out scored by a total of 17-6 in the three games. Prior to that series, the Marlins lost two out of three against Oakland, swept the Rockies, and were swept by the Nationals. Miami doesn’t have many series wins under their belt so far this season and they are currently last in the NL East, 16.5 games behind the Phillies.
The Miami pitching staff has a 5.21 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a .258 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 143 runs with a .225 batting average and a .281 on base percentage. Bryan De La Cruz is batting .269 with eight home runs and 21 RBI’s for the Marlins this season. Miami is 29th in team ERA so far this year and they have allowed at least six runs in seven of their last twelve games.
Phillies are Leading the NL East
The Philadelphia Phillies are 26-12 this year and they have won seven of their last eight games. Philadelphia is coming off of a series split with the Blue Jays, where they won one game and lost one game, but did score 13 runs in the mini series. Prior to that series, the Blue Jays swept the Giants in four games, won two out of three against the Angels, and swept the Padres in three games. Philadelphia has been red hot recently and they have won 18 of their last 22 games, which has propelled them into first place in the NL East.
The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.26 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a .224 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 191 runs with a .258 batting average and a .333 on base percentage. Alec Bohm is batting .346 with four home runs and 32 RBI’s for the Phillies this year. Philadelphia has been one of the best teams in the MLB so far this season and they have scored at least five runs in 10 of their last 13 games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Trevor Rogers, who is 0-5 with a 6.15 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP over 33.2 innings pitched this year. Rogers has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, but did allow eight earned runs and eight hits over 2.1 innings against the Athletics in his last start. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Ranger Suarez, who is 6-0 with a 1.72 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP over 47.0 innings pitched this year. Suarez has allowed four earned runs in his last five starts (36.0 IP).
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Marlins have won each of their last three games as home underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
- The Phillies have lost 10 of their last 14 games as road favorites against National League opponents following a home loss.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last four games as home underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games as road favorites against National League opponents following a home loss.
- The Marlins have led after 3 innings in four of their last six games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Marlins have lost each of their last 11 night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have won each of their last nine games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites against NL East opponents following a loss.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games against National League opponents following a loss.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last 11 night games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have lost the first inning in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last 12 night games against opponents that held a losing record.
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Philadelphia comes into this game with a two game lead over Atlanta in the NL East, while Miami trails the fourth place Nationals by 9.5 games. Miami is just 5-15 at home this year and their pitching staff has been awful. Philadelphia is 11-5 on the road and they will have Ranger Suarez on the mound, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. This Philadelphia offense should roll over the Miami pitching staff, while Suarez has another great outing. My Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction is for the Phillies to win by at least two runs.