The Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins meet Wednesday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Philadelphia Phillies will send out Aaron Nola for the start here and Nola is 1-3 with a 6.03 ERA and 35 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Marlins, Nola is 0-4 with a 6.26 ERA and 32 strikeouts. Janson Junk will start here for the Marlins and is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 21 strikeouts this season. This will be Junk’s second career start against the Phillies.
Philadelphia Phillies Recap
The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to add on to their 7-2 win over the Marlins from Sunday’s matchup to sit at 16-18 this season. After this series, the Phillies will head home for a series against the Athletics.
Phillies Win 6 Of Last 8
Adolis Garcia has 28 hits with 5 doubles, 3 home runs and 11 RBIs while Kyle Schwarber has 27 hits with 6 doubles, 11 home runs and 20 RBIs. Brandon Marsh has 33 hits with 7 doubles, 4 home runs and 18 RBIs while Justin Crawford also has 26 hits with 6 doubles, 2 triples and 7 RBIs. Trea Turner has 33 hits with 6 doubles, 4 home runs and 11 RBIs and Bryce Harper’s added 32 hits with 8 doubles, 6 home runs and 19 RBIs this season.
Miami Marlins Recap
The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to bounce back from Sunday’s loss to Philadelphia to drop to 16-18 this season. After this series, the Marlins will take on the Baltimore Orioles in a series at home.
Marlins Looking To Salvage Split
Xavier Edwards has 42 hits with 7 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs and 11 RBIs while Otto Lopez has 45 hits with 8 doubles, 2 triples, 3 homers and 15 RBIs. Agustin Ramirez has 26 hits with 5 doubles, 2 home runs and 14 RBIs and Liam Hicks has added 30 hits with 3 doubles, 7 home runs and 29 RBIs. Connor Norby has 24 hits with 7 doubles, 3 home runs and 11 RBIs and Owen Caissie has 19 hits with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 15 RBIs. Jakob Marsee also has 22 hits with 2 triples, a home run and 8 RBIs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: May 4, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Janson Junk Record this season: 2-2 ERA: 3.00
- Home Record: 1-1
- Last 5 against Phillies: 0-1
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Marlins have won each of their last three games as home underdogs following a loss.
- The Phillies have lost seven of their last eight games following a road win.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games following a win.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last four home games against NL East opponents following a loss.
- The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven Monday road games.
- The Marlins have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola Record this season: 1-3 ERA: 6.03
- Road Record: 1-3
- Last 5 against Marlins: 1-3
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won each of their last 10 Monday games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have lost 17 of their last 18 Monday games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Phillies have covered the run line each of their last eight Monday games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight Monday games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Four of the Marlins’ last five games as underdogs against the Phillies have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Phillies’ last five night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last seven games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Marlins’ last 10 games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Jakob Marsee has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last eight night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- Esteury Ruiz has hit a home run in each of his two previous appearances with the Marlins as underdogs.
- Otto Lopez ranks T1st in the league in Hits (45) this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Bryson Stott has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games as favorites against the Marlins.
- Aaron Nola has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL East opponents.
- Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his eight previous Monday appearances against teams that held a losing record.
- Bryce Harper has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with the Phillies as favorites against the Marlins.
- Kyle Schwarber ranks T5th in the league in Home Runs (11) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (8).
- The Marlins rank T2nd in the league for steals this season (36).
- The Phillies rank 30th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.279).
- The Phillies rank 30th in the league for hits allowed this season (336).
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Prediction
I’m on the over in this game. I get the case to be made for either side in this game, as Nola’s struggled recently and also struggled in his career against Miami, while Junk’s been solid, but the Phillies have excelled against right-handed pitching this year and are also starting to heat up. I think this is going to be a high-scoring affair, so give me the over in this one.