Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 9-5-24 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 5th at loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 52-87 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Miami is coming off of a series split against Washington, where they won one game and lost one game. Prior to that series, the Marlins won two out of three against the Giants, split four games with the Rockies, and lost two out of three against the Cubs. Miami is 6-9 in their last 15 games and they are last in the NL East. 

The Miami pitching staff has a 4.71 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .256 opponent batting average. The Marlins’ offense has scored 526 runs with a .240 batting average and a .296 on-base percentage. Jake Burger is batting .247 with 25 home runs and 60 RBI’s for the Marlins this season. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 83-56 this year and they have won four games in a row. Philadelphia is coming off of a series win against Toronto, where they won both games by scores of 10-9 and 4-2. Prior to that series, the Phillies won three out of four against the Braves, won two out of three against the Astros, and won two out of three against the Royals. Philadelphia is 9-2 in their last 11 games and they are first in the NL East. 

The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.70 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .239 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 673 runs with a .258 batting average and a .327 on-base percentage. Bryce Harper is batting .282 with 26 home runs and 76 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Adam Oller, who is 1-1 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 16.1 innings pitched this year. Oller has allowed one earned run in his last two starts (11.2 IP). The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Ranger Suarez, who is 11-6 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 128.1 innings pitched this season. Suarez has allowed three earned runs or more in four of his last five starts. 

Why the Marlins will beat the Phillies

• The underdogs have won each of the Marlins’ last four games.
• The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as road favorites following a win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as road favorites against National League opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Marlins’ last four games.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents.

Why the Phillies will beat the Marlins

• The Marlins have lost each of their last six night games following a win.
• The Phillies have won seven of their last eight night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 night games against the Phillies following a win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last four road games.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last 11 Thursday games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in each of their last five Thursday games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies’ last five road games against NL East opponents has gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Marlins’ last five night games against National League opponents has gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last six games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last six home games against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Jake Burger has hit a home run in four of the Marlins’ last five night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Burger has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Marlins’ last six night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Burger has scored at least one run in each of the Marlins’ last five night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Burger has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Marlins’ last eight night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Burger has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last 10 night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jesus Sanchez has recorded a Double in each of his last three home appearances against the Phillies after playing the previous day.
• Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one Single in each of the Marlins’ last four games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• J.T. Realmuto has hit at least one home run in each of the Phillies’ last two games as road favorites.
• Trea Turner has recorded a Double in each of the Phillies’ last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Phillies’ last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 13 appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Ranger Suarez has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of his last eight Thursday appearances against teams that held a losing record.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Ranger Suarez has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances at LoanDepot Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one total base in 21 of his last 22 appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 

These two teams come into this series on opposite ends of the NL East standings, with Philadelphia holding a 31-game lead over Miami. The Phillies are 36-31 on the road, while the Marlins are 26-45 at home. Philadelphia continues to play very well over the last two weeks and they will start Ranger Suarez, who has had some issues in his last five starts. The Marlins will turn to Adam Oller, who has pitched pretty well in limited action so far this year. I don’t like what I have seen from Suarez before or after the injury, but I also don’t expect Oller to hold up against this lineup. Take the over in this game.