In this article we will formulate a Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins betting prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, March 28th at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. To formulate this prediction, we will examine:
- The Pirates recent form and recent player performance
- The Marlins recent form and recent play performance
- Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Pittsburgh
- Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Miami
- Recent betting trends in games played between Pittsburgh and Miami
- A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Pittsburgh and Miami
Pirates Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates were 13-16 during Spring Training this year and they scored 146 runs, while allowing 142. Pittsburgh actually played pretty competitively in 2023, as they went 76-86 and finished fourth in the NL Central. Pittsburgh’s offense was in the bottom half of the MLB last season, but they are looking forward to having Oneil Cruz back in the lineup. The Pirates pitching staff was similar to their offense last season, ranking in the bottom third in ERA. I don’t love the Pittsburgh pitching staff this season, but we will see if they can step up and keep them in contention. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller, who was 13-9 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 194.1 innings pitched last season. The Pirates will play against the Nationals in the series after this one.
Marlins Preview
The Miami Marlins were 10-12 in Spring Training this season and they scored 100 runs, while allowing 117. There -17 run differential was the fourth worst in the Grapefruit League. Miami had a very solid 2023 season, as they went 84-78 on the season and finished 3rd in the NL East. The Marlins did make the postseason as a wild card team, but they were swept in two games against the Phillies. Miami’s offense needs to take a step forward this season, as they were near the bottom of the MLB in runs scored, and they no longer have Jorge Soler. The Miami pitching staff had a pretty solid season in 2023, but they are dealing with some injuries to open this season. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Jesus Luzardo, who was 10-10 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 178.2 innings pitched last year.
Miami Marlins Team Facts
- The underdogs have won seven of the Marlins’ last nine games at LoanDepot Park.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as home favorites.
- The Marlins have led after 5 innings in each of their last five day games at LoanDepot Park against National League opponents.
- The Marlins have led after 7 innings in each of their last four day games against the Pirates at LoanDepot Park.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last five day games between the Pirates and Marlins at LoanDepot Park.
Pittsburgh Pirates Team Facts
- The Pirates have lost five of their last six games at LoanDepot Park.
- The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last five day games at LoanDepot Park.
- The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five day games at LoanDepot Park against NL East opponents.
- The Pirates have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last four day games at LoanDepot Park against NL East opponents.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Jazz Chisholm has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Marlins as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
- Josh Bell has recorded two or more RBIs in each of his last four appearances against the Pirates.
- Josh Bell has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last four appearances against the Pirates.
- Jesus Luzardo has recorded eight or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances with the Marlins as favorites against NL opponents.
- Jazz Chisholm has scored a run in each of his last four appearances with the Marlins as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
- Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last eight games as favorites against the Pirates.
- Josh Bell has recorded a Double in three of the Marlins’ last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
- Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six home appearances.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in two of his last three road appearances against NL East opponents.
- Jack Suwinski has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Pirates’ last six games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
- Bryan Reynolds has scored at least one run in each of the Pirates’ last five games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
- Jack Suwinski has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last nine games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
- Jack Suwinski has recorded at least one total base in each of the Pirates’ last nine games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
- Mitch Keller has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances.
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven Thursday day appearances.
- Connor Joe has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents.
Pirates vs Marlins Betting Prediction
Both of these teams enter 2024 looking for improved offensive numbers and they will look to build on successful 2023 seasons. The Marlins did not expect to go to the postseason last year, so it was a success, even if they were swept by the Phillies. Pittsburgh was in the playoff race for longer than I thought they would be and they will try to replicate that success this year. While I don’t love either pitching staff, I do like both of these starters and with how poorly these teams hit the ball last year, I think we could see a lower scoring game here. Take the under in this matchup.