The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Milwaukee Brewers meet Sunday in MLB action from American Family Field. Here’s a Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks prediction. This will be the final installment in a four-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Brewers vs Diamondbacks pick.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
The Diamondbacks lost two of three games to the Colorado Rockies this past week, winning only Wednesday 9-4. Arizona won the first pair versus Milwaukee 5-1 and 7-4, then on Saturday kept it going with a 5-0 shutout victory. Merrill Kelly went 5.0 innings with two hits in the start.
In the starter slot for the finale, the Diamondbacks will use Jordan Montgomery. This year Montgomery is 8-7 with a 6.23 ERA in 24 games (20 starts). Montgomery is 46-41 with a 4.01 ERA in 165 games (160 starts) over his career.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
Over on the Brewers’ side, they played the Philadelphia Phillies in their last set. Milwaukee lost 5-1 on Tuesday but won the other pair to take the series. On Saturday the Brewers were out-hit 6-2 in the defeat. Starter Aaron Civale logged 4.1 innings with three earned runs.
Frankie Montas will start for Milwaukee on Sunday. Montas is 7-11 with a 4.50 ERA in 28 starts so far. In his career, Montas is 44-46 with a 4.01 ERA in 158 games (127 starts).
Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win
- The Brewers have won 15 of their last 18-day games at American Family Field following a loss.
- The Diamondbacks have lost four of their last five-day games against National League opponents following a road win.
- The Brewers have covered the run line each of their last five-day games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last three day games against the Brewers at American Family Field following a win.
Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win
- The Diamondbacks have won each of their last six road games against the Brewers.
- The Brewers have lost five of their last seven games as home favorites.
- The road team has covered the run line in each of the last nine games between the Diamondbacks and Brewers.
- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Brewers’ last eight games as favorites against National League opponents has gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Six of the Diamondbacks’ last seven-day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last three-day games.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last three-day games at American Family Field.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction
I’ll take a stab at the Brewers, but it’s a coin flip. Montas is 1-2 in his last three starts. In the losses he’s got 11.2 innings and six earned; in the win, Montas put up 6.0 clean frames versus the Giants. As for Montgomery, he’s given up seven earned runs in 10.2 innings over his last three outings but does have a three-inning save in the books.
On Saturday the Brewers couldn’t solve Arizona’s bullpen. That group logged 4.0 innings, no hits, no walks, and seven strikeouts. Milwaukee simply has to be better at the plate to prevent the sweep Sunday.