The Philadelphia Phillies and the Milwaukee Brewers meet Monday in MLB action from American Family Field. Here’s a Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction. This will be the first installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Brewers vs Phillies pick.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Over the weekend the Phillies took on the New York Mets. Philadelphia split the first pair of matchups, then in the Sunday rubber match the Phillies scored both their runs in the final two innings during a walk-off win 2-1. Christopher Sanchez went 7.0 innings with one earned run in the starter role.
In the starter slot for Monday, the Phillies are going with Ranger Suarez. So far Suarez is 12-6 with a 3.05 ERA in 24 starts. Suarez is 41-27 with a 3.33 ERA in 158 career games (90 starts).
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
Over on the Milwaukee side, they played the Arizona Diamondbacks in their last set. The Brewers won the first pair 2-1 and 15-8. On Sunday Milwaukee came back from an early 5-0 deficit which kicked off a wild 11-10 loss in 10 innings. Starter DL Hall posted 3.0 innings with five earned runs.
As a starter for the opener, the Brewers will send out Aaron Civale. This year Civale is 6-8 with a 4.57 ERA in 28 starts. Over 114 career starts, Civale is 37-34 with a 4.07 ERA.
Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win
- The Brewers have won five of their last six games as home underdogs against NL East opponents following a road loss.
- The Phillies have lost three of their last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs following an extra innings loss.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites against the Brewers following a home win.
- The Brewers have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
- The Brewers have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
- The Brewers have won the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won each of their last seven night games after playing the previous day.
- The Brewers have lost four of their last five games at American Family Field.
- The road team has covered the run line in each of the Brewers’ last four games.
- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games at American Family Field.
- The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Monday night games.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last six Monday games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Brewers’ last four home games has gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Phillies’ last four games as favorites against the Brewers has gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last six road games.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last five games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
I’ll stick with the Brewers. Civale has done pretty well over his last three outings. In that trio, he’s got five earned runs (all in the last two games) in 17.1 innings total. Civale is 2-0 in that time. As for Suarez, he’s given up eight earned over his last three starts in 14.1 innings of work, going 1-1 overall.
On Sunday the Brewers got into some early trouble on the scoreboard but they get credit for the wild comeback. Milwaukee couldn’t finish it off on the mound, however. The Brewers gave up 14 hits and 10 earned runs between six different pitchers. Needless to say, Civale needs to start things off well on Monday.