The San Diego Padres and the Milwaukee Brewers meet Sunday in MLB action from American Family Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The San Diego Padres will send out Michael King for the start here and King is 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA and 159 strikeouts this season. Logan Henderson will start for the Brewers and is 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 110 strikeouts this season.
San Diego Padres Recap
The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to bounce back from their 3-2 loss at the hands of the Brewers in game one to fall behind early in the series.
Padres Looking To Even Up Set At One
Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the Padres with a team-high 181 hits while adding 32 doubles, 3 triples, 25 home runs, and 83 RBIs so far this season. Manny Machado paces San Diego in power, leading the team with 30 home runs and 91 RBIs alongside 128 hits and 22 doubles on the year. Jackson Merrill has contributed 156 hits with 26 doubles, 5 triples, 26 home runs, and 87 RBIs. Xander Bogaerts has logged 120 hits with 18 doubles, a triple, 13 home runs, and 57 RBIs, while Gavin Sheets has chipped in 77 hits with 16 doubles, 17 home runs, and 48 RBIs for the Padres up to this point in the season.
Milwaukee Brewers Recap
The Milwaukee Brewers come into this game looking to take a 2-0 stranglehold in the series after picking up the win over the Padres in game one last time out.
Brewers Draw First Blood
Brice Turang leads the Brewers across the board with a team-high 156 hits and 100 RBIs while adding 37 doubles, 3 triples, and 21 home runs so far this season. William Contreras has added 153 hits with 27 doubles, a triple, 18 home runs, and 94 RBIs, while Jackson Chourio has contributed 152 hits with 27 doubles, 25 home runs, and 75 RBIs on the year. Jake Bauers leads Milwaukee with a team-high 26 home runs while logging 127 hits, 22 doubles, 2 triples, and 86 RBIs. Garrett Mitchell has recorded 121 hits with 30 doubles, 4 triples, 11 home runs, and 65 RBIs, while Sal Frelick has chipped in 78 hits with 18 doubles, 4 home runs, and 40 RBIs for the Brewers up to this point in the season.
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends: October 4, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Logan Henderson Record this season: 11-3 ERA: 2.47
- Home Record: 6-0
- Last 5 against Padres: 0-1
Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win
- The Brewers have won each of their last nine games at American Family Field against teams that held a winning record.
- The Padres have lost seven of their last eight road games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in six of their last seven games after playing the previous day.
- The Padres have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four playoff games as underdogs.
- The Brewers have led after 3 innings in each of their last six day games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
- The Brewers have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight home games.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Michael King Record this season (inc. playoffs): 13-10 ERA: 3.09
- Road Record: 6-6
- Last 5 against Brewers: 0-2
Why the San Diego Padres will win
- The Padres have won each of their last eight day games after playing the previous day.
- The Brewers have lost 12 of their last 13 playoff games after playing the previous day.
- The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games as underdogs following a loss.
- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 playoff games against NL West opponents.
- The Padres have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight day games.
- The Padres have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight day games.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Brewers’ last seven playoff games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Padres’ last five road playoff games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Brewers’ last seven games as favorites against NL West opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Padres’ last eight games at American Family Field.
Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts
- William Contreras has hit a home run in each of the Brewers’ last three playoff games as home favorites.
- Logan Henderson has recorded a win in each of his last five home appearances.
- Logan Henderson has recorded seven strikeouts in each of his three previous appearances with the Brewers as favorites against NL West opponents.
- William Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with the Brewers as favorites.
- Jake Bauers ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.389) this season.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
- Michael King has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances.
- Michael King has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against NL Central opponents.
- Ty France has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last nine games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- Gavin Sheets has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks 3rd in the league in Hits (181) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Brewers rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1422).
- The Brewers rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.258).
- The Padres rank T2nd in the league for steals this season (164).
- The Padres rank 24th in the league for doubles this season (234).
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
I’m on the Brewers here. Logan Henderson for me is one of hte more underappreciated starting options in all of baseball, and I think that the Brewers will be able to back him up here in the end. Michael King for me is San Diego’s staff ace, but I still think the Brew Crew do enough for the win when all is said and done so give me Milwaukee.