In this article we will formulate a Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 12th at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Brewers Trying to Get Back on Track
The Milwaukee Brewers are 54-40 this season and they have lost five of their last seven games. Milwaukee is coming off of a series loss against Pittsburgh, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Brewers lost two out of three against the Dodgers, split four games with the Rockies, and won two out of three against the Cubs. Milwaukee is 5-7 in their last 12 games, but they are still leading the NL Central.
The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.78 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .234 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 450 runs with a .255 batting average and a .332 on base percentage. Willy Adames is batting .237 with 14 home runs and 62 RBI’s for the Brewers this season. Milwaukee has scored three runs or fewer in five of their last eight games.
Nationals Trying to Stop Losing Streak
The Washington Nationals are 42-52 this year and they have lost five games in a row. Washington is coming off of a series loss against the Mets, where they lost all three games by scores of 7-5, 6-2, and 7-0. Prior to that series, the Nationals lost three out of four against the Cardinals, split four games with the Mets, and lost two out of three against the Rays. Washington is 3-9 in their last 12 games and they are fourth in the NL East.
The Washington pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .255 opponent batting average. The Nationals offense has scored 388 runs with a .237 batting average and a .308 on base percentage. CJ Abrams is batting .271 with 14 home runs and 46 RBI’s for the Nationals this season. Washington has allowed at least six runs in seven straight games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Freddy Peralta, who is 6-4 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 98.0 innings pitched this year. Peralta has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Jackson Rutledge, who is 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP over 1.0 inning pitched this year. Rutledge allowed one earned run and two hits over one inning of relief work against the White Sox on May 14th.
Why the Brewers will beat the Nationals
- The Brewers have won each of their last eight games at American Family Field following a loss.
- The Nationals have lost each of their last six road games against National League opponents.
- The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight road games.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last five home games against National League opponents following a loss.
- The Nationals have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three road night games.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Nationals’ last eight games as underdogs against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Brewers’ last four games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last four games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last three night games between the Nationals and Brewers at American Family Field.
Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts
- Rhys Hoskins has hit a home run in six of his last seven home appearances against the Nationals.
- William Contreras has recorded a Double in each of the Brewers’ last three games as favorites against NL opponents.
- Rhys Hoskins has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last seven home appearances against the Nationals.
- Rhys Hoskins has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight home appearances against the Nationals.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded seven or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Brewers as favorites against the Nationals.
- Christian Yelich has recorded at least one Single in nine of the Brewers’ last 10 games as home favorites.
- Rhys Hoskins has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last seven home appearances against NL East opponents.
- Rhys Hoskins has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven home appearances against NL East opponents.
- Brice Turang ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (29) this season.
Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts
- Luis Garcia has hit a home run in each of the Nationals’ last two games against the Brewers.
- Luis Garcia has recorded a Double in three of the Nationals’ last four road games against NL opponents.
- Luis Garcia has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Nationals’ last four night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- Luis Garcia has scored at least one run in each of his last six Friday appearances against teams that held a winning record.
- Keibert Ruiz has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- Lane Thomas has recorded at least one total base in each of the Nationals’ last 14 games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Lane Thomas has recorded at least one hit in each of the Nationals’ last 14 games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
- Lane Thomas ranks T5th in the league in Steals (22) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Milwaukee Brewers rank 2nd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.332).
- The Milwaukee Brewers rank 2nd in the league for steals this season (128).
- The Washington Nationals rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (77).
- The Washington Nationals rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (121).
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Prediction
Milwaukee comes into this series leading the NL Central standings, but they haven’t been very good recently and the Cardinals are starting to close the gap. The Brewers are 28-15 at home, while the Nationals are 22-28 on the road this season. Milwaukee has been very good with their hitting and pitching over the course of the season, but the offense has been inconsistent over the last week or so. The Brewers are starting Peralta, who has been very solid so far this year. The Nationals are going with Rutledge, who has really struggled in the minor leagues and has only thrown one inning in the MLB this year. I can’t trust Rutledge to put together a solid outing here, so my Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals prediction is for the Brewers to win by at least two runs.