The Miami Marlins and the Minnesota Twins meet Tuesday in MLB action from Target Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Miami Marlins will start Eury Perez here and Perez is 2-4 with a 5.01 ERA and 45 strikeouts this season. This will be Perez’s second career start against the Twins. Bailey Ober will start for Minnesota here and is 3-2 with a 4.19 ERA and 32 strikeouts this season. This will be Ober’s second career start against the Marlins.
Miami Marlins Recap
The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to add on to their 5-2 win over the Washington Nationals last time out to sit at 19-22 this season. After this series, the Marlins will head on the road for a series against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Marlins Win Back-To-Back Games
Xavier Edwards has 48 hits with 7 doubles, 2 triples, 4 home runs and 14 RBIs while Otto Lopez has 55 hits with 11 doubles, 2 triples, 4 homers and 17 RBIs. Agustin Ramirez has 26 hits with 5 doubles, 2 home runs and 14 RBIs and Liam Hicks has added 37 hits with 3 doubles, 9 home runs and 35 RBIs. Connor Norby has 27 hits with 8 doubles, 3 home runs and 12 RBIs and Owen Caissie has 20 hits with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 17 RBIs. Jakob Marsee also has 27 hits with 2 triples, 2 home runs and 13 RBIs this season.
Minnesota Twins Recap
The Minnesota Twins will be looking to add on to their 5-4 win over Cleveland last time out to sit at 18-23 this season. After this series, the Twins will take on the Milwaukee Brewers in a series at home.
Twins Win Back-To-Back Games
Byron Buxton has 42 hits with 7 doubles, a triple, 13 home runs and 21 RBIs while Josh Bell’s added 31 hits with 6 doubles, 3 home runs and 20 RBIs. Luke Keaschall has 33 hits with 8 doubles, a homer and 15 RBIs and Matt Wallner has 20 hits with 3 doubles, 4 home runs and 10 RBIs. Brooks Lee has 5 home runs with 24 RBIs and Victor Caratini has 13 RBIs while Ryan Jeffers has 31 hits with 6 doubles, a triple, 5 home runs and 23 RBIs this season.
Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins Betting Trends: May 12, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober Record this season: 3-2 ERA: 4.19
- Home Record: 3-0
- Last 5 against Marlins: 0-1
Why the Minnesota Twins will win
- The Marlins have lost each of their last eight road games against American League opponents following a home win.
- The home team has won three of the Marlins’ last four games.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against American League opponents.
- The Twins have covered the run line in each of their last four home games following a road win.
- The Twins have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine home games.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six road games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games against American League opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Eury Perez Record this season: 2-4 ERA: 5.01
- Road Record: 0-2
- Last 5 against Twins: 1-0
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Twins have lost each of their last nine games against National League opponents following a road win.
- The underdogs have won six of the Marlins’ last seven games at Target Field.
- The Twins have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The road team has covered the run line in seven of the Marlins’ last eight games.
- The Marlins have won the first inning in four of their last five games as underdogs against the Twins at Target Field.
- The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games against the Twins.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Twins’ last eight games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Five of the Marlins’ last six night games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Marlins’ last 10 games against American League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Twins’ last five night games at Target Field.
Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts
- Byron Buxton has hit a home run in seven of the Twins’ last eight night games.
- Bailey Ober has recorded a win in each of his last three home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
- Bailey Ober has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last five home appearances against NL opponents.
- Ryan Jeffers has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 home appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Byron Buxton ranks T5th in the league in Home Runs (13) this season.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in each of his last four appearances in night games against AL Central teams that held a losing record.
- Xavier Edwards has recorded two hits in each of the Marlins’ last three road games against the Twins.
- Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (55) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Twins rank T26th in the league for strikeouts this season (310).
- The Twins rank 25th in the league for ERA this season (4.62).
- The Marlins rank 1st in the league for steals this season (48).
- The Marlins rank T2nd in the league for triples this season (8).
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction
I’m on the Twins here. Eury Perez has been a much different starting pitcher at home this season and I just can’t get there with him in his current form away from home. Ober’s been decent and the Twins have started to show up in recent series. All in all I think it’s a Twins W in the end so give me Minnesota in this one.