In this article, we will formulate a Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, August 24th at the Citizens Bank Park in the third game of this series, with the Phillies having the 2-1 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 76-54 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the NL East. They have a 41-22 home record, and are 55-66 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-4 home victory over the Nationals, and are 5-1 in their last 6 games. Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games and are playing the Mets and the Braves next.
The Phillies have a .258 batting average this season, .327 OBP and .424 Slugging percentage. Philly’s pitching staff has a 3.76 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 158 hits and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .301 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 109 RBI and a team-high 45 home runs.
Ranger Suarez (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 9-6 record, 3.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
Washington Nationals Preview
The Washington Nationals have a 51-76 record this season and are sitting on the last place of the NL East. The Nationals have a 27-37 road record and are 65-55 in over/under. They are coming off 4-6 road defeat by the Phillies, which ended their three-game winning streak. They are playing the Yankees and the Rays next.
The Nationals have a .244 batting average this season, .309 OBP and .389 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 5.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. James Wood leads the Nationals with 125 hits, while CJ Abrams is the team’s best hitter with a .265 batting average. James Wood adds a team-high 83 RBI and leads the team in home runs, with 26.
Jake Irvin (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals, and he has an 8-8 record, 5.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won seven of their last eight home games after playing the previous day.
- The Nationals have lost five of their last six road games against NL East opponents.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games after playing the previous day.
- The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight Sunday games against National League opponents.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 11 games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
- The Nationals have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Washington Nationals will win
- The Phillies have lost each of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
- The Nationals have won three of their last four games as underdogs.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 day games against NL East opponents following a win.
- The Nationals have covered the run line in four of their last five games against the Phillies following a loss.
- The Nationals have led after 3 innings in each of their last three road day games.
- The Nationals have led after 5 innings in five of their last six day games.
Total Runs Facts
- Four of the Phillies’ last five games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Three of the Nationals’ last four day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Phillies’ last six games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Nationals’ last 10 road games.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.258).
- The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (1175).
- The Nationals rank 29th in the league for ERA this season (5.31).
- The Nationals rank 29th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.270).
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction
The Nationals are 4-3 in their last 7 head-to-head meetings against the Phillies, but the Phillies are 3-2 in their last 5 home meetings against the Nats. Under is 4-1-2 in their last 7 meetings.
In this Nationals vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -275 home favorites. Suarez is by far the most reliable pitching option in this matchup, even though he is struggling lately. But as bad as he has been lately, Irvin has been even worse, as he has back-to-back games with 6 earned runs and has given up 5+ runs in three of his last four starts. The Nationals have one of the weakest bullpens in baseball, and the Phillies have a better offense, so I see the home team dominating this game. Take the Philadelphia Phillies on the runline in this one.