The Houston Astros and the New York Mets meet Sunday in MLB action from Citi Field. Here’s a NY Mets vs Houston Astros Prediction. This will be the final installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.
Houston Astros Betting Preview
The Astros played a pair of games versus the Colorado Rockies early this week. Houston won both of those matchups 5-2 and 7-1. In the first game of the weekend series versus the Mets, the Astros took a 7-2 loss. On Saturday Houston posted five runs in the final two frames for a 9-6 win. Starter Framber Valdez finished with 4.2 innings, six earned, 10 hits and three walks.
The Astros will go with Shawn Dublin in the starter role Sunday. Dublin is 1-1 with a 5.64 ERA in 14 games (zero starts) this year.
New York Mets Betting Preview
Over on the Mets’ side, they took on the in-city rival New York Yankees in a pair of games this week. The Mets were able to bag wins in both of those, 9-7 and 12-2. After their Friday win, in game two New York blew a 6-1 lead during the loss. Tylor Megill had four earned over 5.1 innings in the start.
It’ll be Luis Severino in the starter slot for the Mets on Sunday. This year Severino is 5-2 with a 3.29 ERA in 15 starts. Over his career in the MLB Severino is 59-39 with a 3.73 ERA in 156 games (140 starts).
Mets vs Astros Pick Injury Notes
Mets RP Drew Smith (UCL tear) is likely to undergo Tommy John surgery.
Astros SP Luis Garcia (elbow) has begun a rehab assignment.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Mets’ last five home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Astros’ last three road games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last four day games against National League opponents.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Starling Marte has hit a home run in each of his last two home appearances against AL West opponents.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one Double in three of the Mets’ last four games against AL opponents.
- Pete Alonso has recorded at least one total base in each of the Mets’ last nine games against AL West opponents.
- Brandon Nimmo has scored at least one run in each of his last six home appearances after playing the previous day.
- Luis Severino has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four home appearances against the Astros.
- Pete Alonso has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mets’ last six games against AL West opponents.
- J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one Single in five of the Mets’ last six day games.
- Pete Alonso has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last nine games against AL West opponents.
Houston Astros Player Prop Facts
- Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances after playing the previous day.
- Alex Bregman has recorded at least one Single in seven of the Astros’ last eight road games.
- Jeremy Pena has recorded a hit in each of the Astros’ last seven games against the Mets.
- Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one total base in each of the Astros’ last seven games against the Mets.
- Yordan Alvarez has scored at least one run in each of his last four road appearances.
- Kyle Tucker has hit at least one home run in seven of his last 11 appearances in day games.
- Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one Double in three of the Astros’ last four day games.
NY Mets vs Houston Astros Prediction
I’ll take a stab on the Mets here. Severino has two good starts and one bad one in his last there outings. In the two good ones combined, he’s 1-0 with one earned in 12.0 innings on 10 hits and three walks. In the bad one, Severino took a no-decision versus the Rangers with 6.1 innings and six earned on eight hits and one walk. If he can avoid the big numbers the Mets will be set up well here.
On Saturday the Mets were in great shape with a 6-4 lead in the eighth inning. New York imploded from there however, in a particularly bad bullpen outing. Severino should be able to hold things together while he’s out there in the finale, but he will need some help from the pen and the bats.