In this article we will formulate a NY Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, July 21st at Yankee Stadium in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series.
Yankees Looking for Second Straight Series Win
The New York Yankees are 59-41 this year and they have won three of their last five games. New York won the first game in this series by a score of 6-1, but they allowed nine runs in the game two loss. Prior to this series, the Yankees won two out of three against the Orioles, lost two out of three against the Rays, and lost two out of three against the Red Sox. New York is 5-9 in their last 14 games and they are second in the AL East.
The New York pitching staff has a 3.57 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .226 opponent batting average. The Yankees offense has scored 495 runs with a .246 batting average and a .329 on base percentage. Aaron Judge is batting .307 with 34 home runs and 86 RBI’s for the Yankees this season. New York has scored at least four runs in five of their last six games.
Rays Offense Exploded on Saturday
The Tampa Bay Rays are 49-49 this season and they have won four of their last six games. Tampa Bay dropped the first game in this series, but they did win game two by a score of 9-1 on Saturday. Prior to this series, the Rays won two out of three against the Guardians, won two out of three against the Yankees, and lost all three against the Rangers. Tampa Bay is 5-6 in their last 11 games and they are fourth in the AL East.
The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 4.18 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .245 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 386 runs with a .236 batting average and a .311 on base percentage. Isaac Paredes is batting .258 with 16 home runs and 51 RBI’s for the Rays this season. Tampa Bay has scored two runs or fewer in seven of their last eleven games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for New York is Marcus Stroman, who is 7-4 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 105.0 innings pitched this year. Stroman has allowed three earned runs or more in four of his last five starts and allowed one earned run over 4.1 innings against Tampa Bay last time out. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Shane Baz, who is 0-1 with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP over 10.1 innings pitched this season. Baz has allowed three earned runs in each of his two starts so far this season.
Why the Yankees will beat the Rays
- The Rays have lost each of their last eight games as underdogs against the Yankees following a win.
- The Yankees have won seven of their last eight day games against American League opponents following a loss.
- The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against AL East opponents following a win.
- The Yankees have covered the run line in four of their last five games against the Rays following a loss.
Why the Rays will beat the Yankees
- The Yankees have lost six of their last seven games as home favorites after playing the previous day.
- The underdogs have won 17 of the Yankees’ last 21 games.
- The Rays have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs after playing the previous day.
- The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as home favorites against the Rays following a home loss.
- The Rays have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games as underdogs against American League opponents.
- The Rays have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Yankees’ last six day games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Rays’ last five games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last five games.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last four games as favorites against AL East opponents.
New York Yankees Player Prop Facts
- Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last seven home appearances against AL opponents.
- Juan Soto has scored at least one run in each of the Yankees’ last five games as favorites against the Rays.
- J.D. Davis has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against AL East opponents.
- Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against AL opponents.
- Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 10 appearances against AL opponents.
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit a home run in seven of his last 16 home appearances with the Yankees against AL opponents.
- Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 11 appearances against AL opponents.
- Marcus Stroman has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five home appearances against AL East opponents.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
- Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 24 appearances with the Rays as underdogs.
- Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in three of his last four road appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
- Yandy Diaz has scored at least one run in each of his last four appearances with the Rays as underdogs against the Yankees.
- Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five road appearances against the Yankees.
- Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 24 appearances with the Rays as underdogs.
- Amed Rosario has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine appearances at Yankee Stadium.
- Randy Arozarena has recorded a Double in each of the Rays’ last four road games against opponents that held a winning record.
NY Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction
New York will look to avoid another series loss to the Rays with a win in this matchup, but they will have to play much better than they did on Saturday. The Yankees are 26-20 at home this year, while the Rays are 22-22 on the road. Tampa Bay was able to score nine runs on Saturday, but they have been one of the lowest scoring teams in the MLB this season. The Rays will start Shane Baz, who has been decent in two starts this season. The Yankees are going with Stroman, who has been pretty inconsistent through 105 innings. Stroman hasn’t been great over the last few weeks, but the Rays offense has also really struggled. I think Stroman will have a solid outing against this Tampa Bay lineup, but I also think Baz will hang in there. My NY Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction is for this game to go under the total.