The Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles meet Sunday in MLB action from Oriole Park. This will be the final installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s an Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Orioles vs Blue Jays pick.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
The Blue Jays met up with the Orioles once this season already, in the first series of the year. Toronto managed wins in two of those four for a split set. The Jays would follow that up with a sweep of the Washington Nationals, then they were swept themselves by the New York Mets in the next series. Earlier this week, Toronto rebounded well against the rival Boston Red Sox, notching wins in the first three outings before a Thursday loss. On Friday in the opener versus Baltimore, the Blue Jays saw a postponement due to inclement weather. That game will be made up on July 29.
In the Saturday matchup Toronto scored one run in each of the first three innings for an early 3-0 lead. The Blue Jays would give that lead up in the fifth and sixth innings however, eventually falling 5-4 in a tough result despite out-hitting Baltimore 10-5. Anthony Santander logged a solo home run in the defeat, while Bo Bichette had three hits with a run. Starting pitcher Bowden Francis managed 5.2 innings with all five earned on four hits and two walks.
As starter for the Jays on Sunday it’ll be Jose Berrios. This year Berrios is 1-1 with a 4.58 ERA in three starts across 17.2 innings total. Berrios has a career record of 100-78 with a 4.08 ERA in 247 games (246 starts).
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
Over on the Orioles’ side, they managed wins 12-2 and 9-5 in their opening set versus the Jays. Baltimore lost two of three to the Boston Red Sox in their second series, then lost two of three to the Kansas City Royals. This week the O’s kept the trend up against the Arizona Diamondbacks, losing two of three in that series as well. In Wednesday’s 9-0 loss, the Orioles gave up five runs in the fifth inning alone and got out-hit 14-4. Starting pitcher Dean Kremer put up 4.2 innings with six earned on eight hits and a walk.
In the Saturday game the O’s were able to hold on for the win despite giving up an extra run in the seventh after their own outburst. Baltimore got a solo home run from Adley Rutschman, and both Cedric Mullins and Heston Kjerstad chipped in two RBI and a run each.
As starter for the Sunday finale Baltimore will go with Cade Povich. This year in two starts Povich is 0-1 with a 3.48 ERA and 12 Ks in 10.1 frames. Povich is 3-10 with a 5.00 ERA in 18 career starts at the MLB level.
Why the Baltimore Orioles will win
- The Blue Jays have lost each of their last six games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Orioles have won eight of their last nine day games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The Orioles have covered the run line in four of their last five day games against the Blue Jays following a win.
- The Blue Jays have lost the first inning in four of their last five day games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
- The Orioles have led after 5 innings in six of their last eight day games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win
- The Orioles have lost each of their last six games following a win.
- The Blue Jays have won six of their last eight games as road underdogs against the Orioles following a loss.
- The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games after playing the previous day.
- The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games following a win.
- The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last nine day games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Orioles have lost the first inning in four of their last five games against American League opponents.
- The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven Sunday games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Blue Jays’ last 12 road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Orioles’ last four games as favorites against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last six games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last six games as favorites.
Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction
I’ll stay with the Blue Jays. Berrios didn’t start out the season so well, giving up six earned on nine hits and two walks in 5.0 innings during a loss to the Orioles on March 27. Since then however, Berrios is 1-0 with just three earned combined across 12.2 innings in two starts. He’s given up eight hits and three walks during that time. Another quality outing from Berrios here would be great news for Toronto and bolster their prospects at a potential victory. As for Povich, he gave up just one earned in 6.0 innings during a loss to KC his last time up, but the 12 hits were a little much.
The Blue Jays were looking pretty good in the early part of Saturday’s matchup, but couldn’t hold it together after Francis coughed up five earned runs. Toronto’s bullpen was solid though, and would have protected the lead. I like the Jays to finish strong Sunday.