The Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles meet on Wednesday in MLB action from Oriole Park. This will be the second installment in a three-game series. Here’s an Orioles vs Red Sox prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Orioles vs Red Sox pick.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Red Sox opened up their season against the Texas Rangers over the weekend, and things didn’t go all that well. Boston managed a 5-2 victory in the Thursday opener but then fell 4-1 and 4-3 in the next two games. In the Sunday finale, the Red Sox had a brief 2-1 lead but ended up falling again 3-2. Wilyer Abreu posted the team’s lone RBI in the defeat, along with one run, one hit, and three walks. Starting pitcher Richard Fitts finished with 6.0 innings, three earned, six hits, and no walks alongside four Ks.
In the Monday opener versus the Orioles, Boston gave up four runs in the first inning and couldn’t complete the comeback in an eventual loss 8-5. Jarren Duran posted two hits with three RBI in the losing effort, while Romy Gonzalez (two hits) and Kristian Campbell (two walks) each had a run and two RBI. Starter Sean Newcomb left after 4.0 innings and four earned runs.
For the starter gig in the Wednesday game two, the Sox will send out Garrett Crochet. This year, Crochet has one start under his belt without a decision. He managed 5.0 innings in that one with two earned runs. Crochet is 9-19 with a 3.29 career ERA in 105 games (33 starts).
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
Over on the Orioles’ side, their year began with a four-game weekend series versus the Toronto Blue Jays. Baltimore managed to split that one 2-2. The O’s took wins 12-2 on Thursday and 9-5 on Saturday. The losses otherwise came 8-2 in game two and 3-1 on Sunday. In that final defeat, the Orioles scored their lone run in the top of the first inning and couldn’t get anything else going on nine team hits. Baltimore got two hits, a walk, and a run from Ryan O’Hearn. Starter Tomoyuki Sugano lasted 4.0 innings with two earned on four hits and two walks.
In game one versus the Sox on Monday, the O’s had two big innings in the first and eighth (four runs each) on the way to 15 team hits. Cedric Mullins had a big day with two hits and four RBI, while Tyler O’Neill added four hits with two runs and one RBI. Cade Povich put up 4.1 innings with three earned on five hits and two walks with eight Ks in the start.
The O’s will go with Zach Eflin as a starter on Wednesday. This season, Eflin has one outing under his belt, notching a victory with 6.0 innings and two earned runs. Over his MLB career in the regular season, Eflin is 63-62 with a 4.16 ERA in 187 games (175 starts) total.
Why the Baltimore Orioles will win
- The underdogs have won four of the Orioles’ last five games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
- The Red Sox have lost four of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
- The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in four of the Orioles’ last five games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
- The Orioles have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight night games against American League opponents.
- The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight road night games.
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
- The Red Sox have won each of their last five night games against the Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards following a road loss.
- The Orioles have lost six of their last seven games against AL East opponents following a win.
- The Red Sox have covered the run line in 13 of their last 14 night games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards following a road loss.
- The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games against AL East opponents following a win.
- The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as home underdogs.
- The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Orioles’ last five night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Red Sox’s last four night games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last eight night games against AL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Orioles’ last 10 games as home underdogs against AL East opponents.
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction
I’m going to stay with the O’s here. Baltimore got a nice start from Eflin in the Thursday opener versus the Blue Jays last week. He notched 6.0 frames with two earned, two hits, one walk, and two strikeouts. The bullpen behind him was very good as well, posting three clean frames on two hits and four walks between three different arms. As for Crochet, he wasn’t too bad in his debut with 5.0 innings, two earned, five hits, two walks, and four Ks. We’ll have a good pitching matchup here if both guys are on point.
In Monday’s game, Baltimore had a nice offensive day with five different players posting multiple hits. The output was much-needed, as the O’s had a couple of hiccups among the pitching staff—including Felix Bautista’s two earned, two hits, and two walks in one inning as he closed things out. If the Orioles can keep it going at the plate Wednesday, they should be fine.