Padres vs Cubs Prediction 9/30/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Padres vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, September 30^th at the Wrigley Field in the Game 1 of this NL Wild Card series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs finished the regular season with a 92-70 record and were placed first in the NL Central. The Cubs have a 50-31 home record and are 74-75 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-0 home win over the Cardinals, and are 4-1 in their last 5 games. Over is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games.

The Cubs have a .249 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .430 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the Cubs with 178 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .297 batting average. Seiya Suzuki leads the team in RBI, with 103, while Michael Busch adds a team-high 34 home runs.

Matthew Boyd (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 14-8 record, 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres finished the regular season with a 90-72 record and were placed first in the NL West. The Padres have a 38-43 road record and are 69-87 in over/under. They are coming off a 12-4 home victory over the Diamondbacks, and are 7-1 in their last 8 games.

The Padres have a .252 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .390 slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Luis Arraez leads the Padres with 181 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with .292 batting average. Manny Machado leads the team in RBI, with 95 and in home runs, with 27.

Nick Pivetta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 13-5 record, 2.87 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.

San Diego Padres @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: September 30, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Matthew Boyd      Record this season: 14-8      ERA: 3.21
• Home Record: 12-1
• Last 5 against Padres: 1-1

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Padres have lost eight of their last nine games against the Cubs following a win.
• The home team has won five of the Padres’ last six games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six playoff games following a win.
• The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Cubs’ last five games.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in four of their last five games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 games as road underdogs.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Pivetta      Record this season: 13-5      ERA: 2.87
• Road Record: 5-4
• Last 5 against Cubs: 1-2

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Cubs have lost each of their last four playoff games as favorites.
• The Padres have won each of their last four games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven playoff games as home favorites.
• The Padres have covered the run line in 13 of their last 14 games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Padres have won the first inning in four of their last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four playoff games against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Cubs’ last nine home playoff games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Padres’ last six playoff games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last 10 Tuesday games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Cubs’ last six day games against NL West opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has hit at least one home run in each of the Cubs’ last four games.
• Ian Happ has recorded a Double in each of the Cubs’ last three games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Nico Hoerner ranks 6th in the league in Hits (178) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded a Double in three of his last four playoff appearances with the Padres as underdogs.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Luis Arraez ranks T2nd in the league in Hits (181) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (405).
• The Cubs rank T3rd in the league for RBIs this season (771).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.225).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1197).

Padres vs Cubs Prediction

The Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Cubs, and both teams are tied 3-3 wins in their last 6 meetings in Chicago.

In this Padres vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -115 home favorites. Both pitchers have been elite this season, but they are both coming into this matchup in poor form. Boyd has been struggling for the past month for the Cubs, having 4+ earned runs in five of his seven starts in that span. Pivetta has 3 earned runs in his last two starts, and both offenses have been red-hot lately, as they both have scored at least 5 runs in five of their last six games. Take the over 7 runs in this one.