In this article we will formulate a Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 26th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Phillies Looking for Consistency
The Philadelphia Phillies are 64-38 this season and they have lost five of their last seven games. Philadelphia is coming off of a series loss against Minnesota, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Phillies lost two out of three against the Pirates, lost two out of three against the Athletics, and swept the Dodgers in three games. Philadelphia is 3-6 in their last nine games and they are first in the NL East.
The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.46 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a .230 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 500 runs with a .257 batting average and a .329 on base percentage. Bryce Harper is batting .292 with 23 home runs and 65 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. Philadelphia has allowed at least four runs in seven of their last nine games.
Guardians Continue to Struggle
The Cleveland Guardians are 61-41 this year and they have lost four of their last six games. Cleveland is coming off of a series split with Detroit, where they won two games and lost two games. Prior to that series, the Guardians lost two out of three against the Padres, lost two out of three against the Rays, and lost three out of four against the Tigers. Cleveland is 4-8 in their last 12 games and they are first in the AL Central.
The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.65 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average. The Guardians offense has scored 471 runs with a .241 batting average and a .313 on base percentage. Jose Ramirez is batting .273 with 24 home runs and 82 RBI’s for the Guardians this season. Cleveland has scored two runs or fewer in five of their last six games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Ben Lively, who is 8-6 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 93.1 innings pitched this year. Lively has allowed two earned runs in three of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Cristopher Sanchez, who is 7-5 with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 109.0 innings pitched this season. Sanchez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts.
Why the Phillies will beat the Guardians
- The Phillies have won 12 of their last 13 games at Citizens Bank Park following a loss.
- The Guardians have lost 10 of their last 11 road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in 15 of their last 16 games after playing the previous day.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against AL Central opponents following a road loss.
- The Guardians have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five road games.
- The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games as underdogs.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Guardians’ last seven night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Four of the Phillies’ last five games as favorites against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last four games against National League opponents.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Trea Turner has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games as home favorites.
- Nick Castellanos has recorded a Double in five of the Phillies’ last six games.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Trea Turner has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last eight appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of the Phillies’ last six games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 appearances against the Guardians after not playing the previous day.
Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts
- Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in two of the Guardians’ last three road games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one RBI in nine of the Guardians’ last 11 night games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Steven Kwan has scored at least one run in eight of his last nine road appearances against NL opponents.
- Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one Single in each of the Guardians’ last seven games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
- Andres Gimenez has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last four appearances with the Guardians as underdogs against NL East opponents.
- Andres Gimenez has recorded two hits in each of the Guardians’ last two games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction
Both of these teams come into this series leading their divisions, but they are struggling right now. The Phillies are 37-16 at home, while the Guardians are 28-26 on the road. Cleveland is a much better home team than they are on the road, and they are having some major offensive problems right now. The Guardians lead in the AL Central is shrinking and they have a very difficult series here. These two starting pitchers have been pretty solid so far this season, but Sanchez has an ERA under three. I don’t trust Cleveland’s offense right now, so my Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians prediction is for the Phillies to win by at least two runs.