In this article we will formulate a Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, June 5th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series.
Phillies Continue to Dominate the NL East
The Philadelphia Phillies are 43-19 this season and they have won five of their last six games. Philadelphia has won the first two games in this series by scores of 3-1 and 2-1, including a walk-off win on Tuesday night. Prior to this series, the Phillies won two out of three against the Cardinals, lost two out of three against the Giants, and lost two out of three against the Rockies. Philadelphia is just 6-5 in their last 11 games, but they have a seven game lead in the NL East standings.
The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 2.96 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a .220 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 318 runs with a .255 batting average and a .330 on base percentage. Bryce Harper is batting .270 with 14 home runs and 44 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. Philadelphia is second in the MLB in team ERA and they have allowed two runs or fewer in six of their last seven games.
Brewers Try to Avoid Sweep
The Milwaukee Brewers are 36-25 this year and they have won five of their last seven games. Milwaukee has dropped the first two games in this series and they have only scored two runs in the losses. Prior to this series, the Brewers swept the White Sox in three games, won three out of four against the Cubs, and won two out of three against the Red Sox. Milwaukee is 8-4 in their last twelve games and they are leading the NL Central over the Cubs and Cardinals.
The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.77 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 306 runs with a .256 batting average and a .332 on base percentage. William Contreras is batting .310 with eight home runs and 44 RBI’s for the Brewers this season. Milwaukee is 11th in team ERA this season and they have allowed three runs or fewer in nine of their last 13 games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 7-2 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 77.1 innings pitched this year. Nola has allowed a total of six earned runs over his last three starts (28.1 IP). The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Aaron Ashby, who is 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA and a 2.18 WHIP over 3.2 innings pitched this year. Ashby allowed four earned runs and six hits over 3.2 innings against the Reds back on April 8th.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
The Phillies have won each of their last 12 day games at Citizens Bank Park following an extra innings win.
The Brewers have lost seven of their last eight road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last eight games after going to extra innings.
The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Brewers’ last six games after going to extra innings have gone OVER the total runs line.
Each of the last six games between the Brewers and Phillies at Citizens Bank Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last five road games.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last four day games at Citizens Bank Park.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Philadelphia has won the first two games in this series and they have been one of the best home teams in the MLB this season, as they are 26-9 at home. Milwaukee is 18-15 on the road and they have done a good job of limiting Philadelphia’s offense in the series, but they have only managed two total runs so far in two games. The Phillies will turn to Aaron Nola, who has been very successful so far this season. Milwaukee hasn’t officially announced a starting pitcher yet, but it sounds like it might be Aaron Ashby, who was just recalled. Ashby made one start early in the season, which did not go very well. Philadelphia is great at home and I won’t go against Nola here. My Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction is for the Phillies to win by at least two runs.