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Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas Rangers Prediction 5-21-24 Picks

Texas Rangers (24-24) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (34-14)
May 21, 2024 6:40 pm EDT
The Line: Philadelphia Phillies -165 / Texas Rangers +140; Over/Under: +8.5
(Get latest betting odds)

In this article we will formulate a Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas Rangers prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, May 21st at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series. 

Phillies Pulling Away in the NL East

The Philadelphia Phillies are 34-14 this season and they have won six of their last seven games. Philadelphia is coming off of a series win against Washington, where they won all three games by scores of 4-2, 4-3, and 11-5. Prior to that series, the Phillies won three out of four against the Mets, won two out of three against Miami, and split a two game series with Toronto. Philadelphia has won 15 of their last 18 games and they have a five game lead in the NL East over the Braves. 

The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.17 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a .223 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 256 runs with a .258 batting average and a .337 on base percentage. Bryce Harper is batting .273 with 10 home runs and 35 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. Philadelphia has scored at least four runs in ten straight games. 

Rangers are Trying to Find Momentum 

The Texas Rangers are 24-24 this year and they have lost seven of their last nine games. Texas is coming off of a series loss against the Angels, where they lost two out of three games and were out scored 15-7 in three games. Prior to that series loss, the Rangers lost two out of three against Cleveland, were swept by the Rockies, and won three out of four against Oakland. Texas has really struggled over their last nine games, but they are only two games behind Seattle in the AL West. 

The Texas pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .227 opponent batting average. The Rangers offense has scored 220 runs with a .247 batting average and a .317 on base percentage. Adolis Garcia is batting .251 with 11 home runs and 35 RBI’s for the Rangers this season. Texas is 11th in runs scored so far this season, but they have scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Ranger Suarez, who is 8-0 with a 1.37 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP over 59.0 innings pitched this season. Suarez has allowed a total of four earned runs in his last five starts (33 IP) and the Phillies are 5-0 in those outings. The projected starting pitcher for Texas is Jon Gray, who is 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 52.0 innings pitched this year. Gray has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts and the Rangers are 4-1 in those outings. Both of these pitchers have been very good so far this season. 

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

The Phillies have won 15 of their last 17 games at Citizens Bank Park.
The Rangers have lost five of their last six road games against National League opponents.
The Rangers have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games.
The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against AL West opponents.
The Rangers have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six night games against NL East opponents.
The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last five night games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

Seven of the Phillies’ last eight night games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Each of the Rangers’ last four games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rangers’ last eight night games.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last seven night games at Citizens Bank Park.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas Rangers Prediction 

The Phillies come into this series as one of the hottest teams in the MLB and they are starting to put some serious distance between them and the Braves in the NL East. Texas has struggled recently, but they will turn to Jon Gray to try and get back on track. Gray has been very solid for Texas this season, but he faces one of the best scoring lineups in baseball. Philadelphia is going with Ranger Suarez, who may be the best pitcher in the MLB so far this year. Suarez is already 8-0 on the season and I like him to have another great outing. My Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas Rangers Prediction is for the Phillies to win by at least two runs. 

David Racey's Free Pick: Phillies -1.5

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David Racey

David started writing about sports in 2015, but sports has been his passion for as long as he can remember. David spends most of his free time watching pretty much anything sports related from Baseball to Tennis and everything in between. David likes to analyze statistics and recent results to form an unbiased opinion on whatever game he is breaking down. Follow David on Twitter at @itsyerboi41

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