The San Francisco Giants and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Wednesday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. This will be the third installment in a four-game series. Here’s a Phillies vs Giants prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Phillies vs Giants pick.
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview
San Francisco kicked off their season on a great clip, posting wins in two of three games versus the Cincinnati Reds, then sweeping the Houston Astros in three games. The Giants would keep it up with another three-game sweep versus the Seattle Mariners, but then lost two of three to the Reds in the rematch during early April. Last weekend, the Giants posted wins in two of three games versus the New York Yankees. On Monday in the opener versus the Phillies, San Francisco bagged 12 team hits and scored six runs in the second inning alone on the way to a 10-4 victory. The Giants’ Mike Yastrzemski logged two hits, two runs, three RBI, and a homer in the win. Starter Landen Roupp put up 5.0 innings with four earned runs.
In the Tuesday game, the Giants gave up two runs in three different innings on the way to a 6-4 loss. Starting pitcher Justin Verlander left after 5.2 innings, four earned, eight hits, three walks, and a strikeout.
In the starting pitcher role for Wednesday, San Francisco will send out Robbie Ray. This year, Ray is 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA in three starts across 15.1 innings total. Ray is 80-73 with a 3.97 ERA in 236 career games (232 starts).
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Over on the Phillies’ side, they got things started this year with a victory in a series over the Washington Nationals, winning two of the three games. Philadelphia would then bag a sweep over the Colorado Rockies, then they won of three versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. Philly would then lose two of three versus the Atlanta Braves and then split the first pair versus the St. Louis Cardinals. On Sunday in the rubber match, the Phillies took a pretty brutal 7-0 loss. On Monday in the opener of this set, Philadelphia had a very brief 3-0 lead ahead of their six-run second inning. Nick Castellanos notched two hits, two RBI, and a homer in the defeat. Taijuan Walker put up 5.0 innings with four earned runs on six hits and a walk as a starter.
In Tuesday’s matchup, the Phillies got home runs and two RBI each from Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto. Jesus Luzardo lasted 5.1 innings in the start with three earned runs on five hits and two walks.
It’ll be Aaron Nola on the mound for the start on Wednesday. This season, through his three starts so far, Nola is a rough 0-3 with a 5.51 ERA in 16.1 innings total. Over 271 career starts, Nola is 104-82 overall with a 3.72 ERA.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won each of their last nine Wednesday night games against NL West opponents.
- The Giants have lost five of their last six games at Citizens Bank Park.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in five of their last six games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
- The Giants have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight night games against the Giants at Citizens Bank Park.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight Wednesday night games as home favorites.
- The Giants have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
Why the San Francisco Giants will win
- The Giants have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs following a road loss.
- The Phillies have lost eight of their last 11 games as favorites following a win.
- The Giants have covered the run line in 13 of their last 14 road games following a loss.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against the Giants following a win.
- The Giants have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Giants have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 12 road night games.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Giants’ last six games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Eight of the Phillies’ last nine games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Giants’ last four games as underdogs against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Phillies’ last 13 games as favorites.
Phillies vs Giants Prediction
I’ll likely just stay with San Francisco, but this should be a good starter matchup if both guys perform well. Ray has 10.0 innings with just two earned on six hits and nine walks over his last two starts, going 2-0 in that pair. Ray also won his debut, despite a shakier three earned runs in 5.1 innings against the Reds. As for Nola, he’s taken losses in each of his first three starts, but he hasn’t pitched all that badly. Nola has five earned runs on 12 hits and five walks across 11.0 innings in his last pair of starts.
San Francisco didn’t get the greatest outing from Verlander on Tuesday, and the offense failed to keep pace on the scoreboard. The Giants notched eight team hits, but Jung Hoo Lee and Matt Chapman had half of them. San Francisco will need a better all-around effort from the bats if they’re going to win a low-scoring game Wednesday.