The Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Saturday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. This will be the second installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Phillies vs Marlins Prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Phillies vs Marlins pick.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Marlins bagged victories in three of their four games against the Pittsburgh Pirates as they opened up their campaign this year. Miami lost their next series against the New York Mets, then halved a rain-shortened series versus the Atlanta Braves. The Marlins then had a rematch with the Mets (and lost the set) before managing victories in two of three games versus the Washington Nationals. The Marlins lost their first two outings versus the Diamondbacks this week 10-4 and 6-2. In the Thursday finale Miami out-hit Arizona 13-5 but still ended up losing 6-4 in the end. Rob Brantly led the team with three hits and an RBI, while starter Edward Cabrera had 4.0 innings with five earned runs.
On Friday in the opener versus the Phillies, the Marlins were out-hit 9-5 in a 7-2 loss. Starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara went 2.0 innings with six earned runs on four hits and two walks with just one strikeout. Eric Wagaman had the only two RBI with a home run, and Kyle Stowers scored the other run.
In the starting pitcher role for Saturday, Miami will go with Cal Quantrill. This year over his three starts Quantrill is 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA in 14.0 total innings. Quantrill is 44-35 with a 4.10 ERA in 164 career games (126 starts).
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Over on the Phillies’ side, they posted victories over the Washington Nationals in two of three games during their opening series this year. Philadelphia then bagged a sweep over the Colorado Rockies before taking victories in two of three against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Philly then fell in their series against the Atlanta Braves ahead of losses in two of three versus the St. Louis Cardinals. Philadelphia won Tuesday’s game versus the San Francisco Giants 6-4 but lost in the other pair during the first three outings. On Thursday in the finale, the Phillies managed to score five runs in the first inning alone on the way to a 6-4 victory. Kyle Schwarber had two hits, a run and two RBI. Starting pitcher Christopher Sanchez had 7.0 frames with two earned on four hits and one walk alongside 12 Ks.
In Friday’s game Philly scored six runs across the first two innings, including four runs in the second alone. Philadelphia’s Bryce Harper (two RBI) and Kyle Schwarber (solo) each had home runs. Starting pitcher Zack Wheeler was great on 7.0 innings, two earned, five hits, no walks and 13 strikeouts.
It’ll be Taijuan Walker in the starting role for the Phillies on Saturday. This year over his trio of starts Walker has a 2.30 ERA with a 1-1 record in 15.2 frames. Walker is 73-64 with a 4.17 ERA in 220 career games (212 starts).
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won each of their last seven home games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have lost eight of their last nine games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have covered the run line each of their last four home games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Marlins have won four of their last five games as underdogs following a road loss.
- The Phillies have lost three of their last four games as favorites following a win.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine day games against NL East opponents following a win.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in six of their last seven day games against the Phillies following a loss.
- The Marlins have led after 5 innings in five of their last six day games against the Phillies.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Phillies’ last six home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Marlins’ last four games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last eight games between the Marlins and Phillies.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last four games at Citizens Bank Park.
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction
I’ll stick with Philadelphia here. Walker does need a good bounce-back start, though. In his last outing versus the Giants on April 14, Walker put up a loss with 5.0 innings, four earned, six hits and a walk. In his two prior appearances however, Walker logged 10.2 combined innings with zero earned, eight hits and four walks. As for Quantrill, he’s got one good start (5.0 clean frames in a win over the Braves) in between two bad starts (nine earned combined over 9.0 innings) in his first three appearances this year.
The Phillies didn’t have a ton of issues in Friday’s victory, and the bullpen came through with 2.0 clean frames, no hits, two walks and three Ks between two arms after Wheeler’s great start. I like Philly to keep it up in the finale.