The Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Sunday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. This will be the final installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Phillies vs Marlins Prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Phillies vs Marlins pick.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Marlins posted wins in three of their four games versus the Pittsburgh Pirates as they kicked off the 2025 season. Miami would end up falling in their next series against the New York Mets, then split a short (weather) two-game series versus the Atlanta Braves. The Marlins would then take on the Mets again (and lost the set) before taking wins in two of three games versus the Washington Nationals. Miami hit the skids over the weekend versus the Arizona Diamondbacks, falling in a sweep with losses 10-4, 6-2 and 6-4. In Friday’s opener versus the Phillies, the Marlins were out-hit 9-5 in a 7-2 defeat. Eric Wagaman provided both RBI with a homer, and starter Sandy Alcantara went just 2.0 innings with six earned on four hits and two walks.
On Saturday in game two Miami gave up nine runs across three innings but made a valiant effort at a late comeback in an 11-10 loss. Dane Myers (two runs; three RBI) and Liam Hicks (four hits; four RBI) each had home runs in the defeat. Cal Quantrill lasted just 3.1 innings in the start with seven earned on eight hits and three walks.
In the starter slot for the Sunday finale the Marlins will send out Connor Gillispie. This year in his four starts Gillispie is 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA over 19.0 innings. Gillispie is 0-2 with a 5.33 ERA in seven career games (four starts) at the MLB level.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Over on the Phillies’ side, they bagged wins versus the Washington Nationals in two of their three games in the first series of the season. Philadelphia would then sweep the Colorado Rockies ahead of a series win versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Phillies lost their series versus the Atlanta Braves then fell in two of three versus the St. Louis Cardinals. Philadelphia took losses to the San Francisco Giants on Monday and Wednesday but won the other two games in that set for a split. On Friday the Phillies scored six runs in the first two innings and cruised from there. Both Bryce Harper (two RBI) and Kyle Schwarber (solo) had home runs. Starting pitcher Zack Wheeler logged 7.0 innings with two earned on five hits and no walks alongside 13 strikeouts.
In the Saturday matchup the Phillies but up 18 team hits in the victory. Bryson Stott led the offense with three RBI, two runs and three hits.
Jesus Luzardo will take the mound for the start on Sunday. This year Luzardo is 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA in four starts across 23.1 innings. Luzardo is 28-34 with a 4.20 ERA in 109 games (93 starts) over his career.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won each of their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in four of their last five home games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Marlins have won four of their last six games as underdogs following a road loss.
- The Phillies have lost six of their last eight day games against the Marlins following a win.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last 10 Sunday games as underdogs.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 day games against NL East opponents following a win.
- The Marlins have led after 5 innings in three of their last four day games against the Phillies.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Phillies’ last seven home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Seven of the Marlins’ last eight games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the last nine games between the Marlins and Phillies.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last four day games against NL East opponents.
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction
I’ll stick with the Phillies here, but I’m not touching it due to the thick line. Luzardo has been pretty good this season so far, but he did have a couple of shaky moments versus the Giants in his last outing. Luzardo finished with three earned on five hits and two walks over 5.1 innings in that one. In his prior two starts Luzardo had 13.0 innings with one earned combined on eight hits and three walks. As for Gillispie, he coughed up eight earned in 5.0 innings versus the Diamondbacks in his last outing, but had a couple of decent starts prior to that. Gillispie had three earned combined over 9.0 frames in that pair, giving up seven hits and a walk.
Philadelphia nearly blew their sizable lead Saturday thanks to a couple of rough bullpen performances. The offense was on point however, and if Philly can keep it up Sunday they’ll have few issues.