In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Mets Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, June 28th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
New York Mets Preview
The New York Mets have a 35-48 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL East. They have a 19-23 home record and are coming off a 6-2 home win against the Phillies. They will face the Blue Jays and the Braves next.
The Mets have a .231 batting average this season, .297 OBP and .375 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Juan Soto is the team’s best hitter with a .299 batting average, also adding a team-high 17 home runs. Bo Bichette leads the team in RBI with 46.
Cionel Perez (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 3-3 record, 4.99 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 46-37 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 23-18 road record and are coming off a 2-6 road defeat against the Mets. They will face the Pirates and the Royals next.
The Phillies have a .236 batting average this season, .302 OBP and .401 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.10 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .318 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 52, adding a team-high 29 home runs.
Jesus Luzardo (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 6-4 record, 4.39 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets Betting Trends: June 28, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Cionel Perez Record this season: 3-3 ERA: 4.99
- Home Record: 2-3
- Last 5 against Phillies: 0-0
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Phillies have lost eight of their last nine games as favorites against the Mets following a road loss.
- The Mets have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against the Phillies following a home win.
- The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last six games as home underdogs against the Phillies.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games as favorites against the Mets following a road loss.
- The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as road favorites.
- The Mets have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine Sunday day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo Record this season: 6-4 ERA: 4.00
- Road Record: 4-0
- Last 5 against Mets: 4-0
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won each of their last 10 games following a road loss.
- The Mets have lost seven of their last eight games.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last eight road games following a loss.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last nine day games against NL East opponents following a win.
- The Phillies have won the first inning in each of their last three games as favorites against the Mets.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last five road games against opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Mets’ last three games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Thirteen of the Phillies’ last 17 road games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in 10 of the Phillies’ last 11 games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the last eight games between the Phillies and Mets.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Carson Benge has hit a home run in two of the Mets’ last three games as underdogs against the Phillies.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 home appearances against NL East opponents.
- Juan Soto ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.567) this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Bryce Harper has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games against the Mets.
- Jesus Luzardo has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances.
- Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Bryce Harper has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 Sunday day appearances against NL East teams that held a losing record.
- Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (29) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Mets rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (100).
- The Mets rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.298).
- The Phillies rank T1st in the league for strikeouts this season (788).
- The Phillies rank T2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (227).
Phillies vs Mets Prediction
The Phillies are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings against the Mets, but have lost two of their last three visits in New York.
In this Phillies vs Mets Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -145 road favorites. I am with the Phillies in this one with Jesus Luzardo on the mound, who has been in very good form lately, with just four runs in his last three starts. He has been far better on the road with a 4-0 record and 1.52 ERA, while the Mets are going for a bullpen game. I like the Phillies on a bounce-back spot today, so take them on the moneyline in this one.