The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies meet Monday in MLB action at Citizens Bank Park. Here’s a Phillies vs Mets Prediction. This article will include a Phillies vs Mets Pick.
New York Mets Betting Preview
The New York Mets are 76-67 on the year and play the Rangers, Padres, and Nationals next. The New York Mets are batting .251 on the season, have a .329 OBP, and a .431 slugging percentage. The New York Mets pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Francisco Lindor leads the New York Mets with 153 hits and 77 RBI, while Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo have combined for 282 hits and 193 RBI.
Nolan McLean gets the ball for the New York Mets, and he is 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 28 strikeouts this season. This will be McLean’s second career game against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies are 83-60 on the year and play the Royals, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks next. The Philadelphia Phillies are batting .258 on the season, have a .328 OBP, and a .426 slugging percentage. The Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Philadelphia Phillies with 179 hits and 69 RBI while Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos have combined for 256 hits and 182 RBI.
Aaron Nola gets the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he is 3-8 with a 6.78 ERA and 72 strikeouts this season. Nola is 10-10 with a 3.54 ERA and 211 strikeouts in his career against the New York Mets.
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: September 8, 2025
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola Record this season: 3-8 ERA: 6.78
- Home Record: 3-3
- Last 5 against Mets: 1-4
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won each of their last 11 home games following a loss.
- The Mets have lost each of their last six road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last six home games against National League opponents following a loss.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites against National League opponents following a road loss.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Nolan McLean Record this season: 4-0 ERA: 1.37
- Road Record: 2-0
- Last 5 against Phillies: 1-0
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Mets have won each of their last 12 games as favorites against the Phillies following a loss.
- The Phillies have lost each of their last six night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites against the Phillies following a road loss.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line each of their last six night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs.
- The Mets have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against National League opponents.
- The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last nine night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Phillies’ last five games as home underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Six of the Mets’ last seven night games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last four games against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Phillies’ last seven games as home underdogs.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
- Aaron Nola has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances.
- Bryson Stott has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances with the Phillies as underdogs.
- Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 12 games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (49) this season.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Francisco Lindor has hit at least one home run in three of the Mets’ last four games as favorites against the Phillies.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 18 games as favorites against NL opponents.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one Double in each of the Mets’ last three games as favorites.
- Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.401) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (1299).
- The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (390).
- The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (128).
- The Mets rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (508).
Phillies vs Mets Prediction
The Mets keep finding ways to lose so it’s hard to take them seriously against a team like the Phillies. However, McLean has been incredible through 26.1 innings, allowing 13 hits and 4 runs, and that includes giving the Phillies 8 scoreless innings a little over a week ago. Nola has been a shell of himself this season, and that includes allowing 22 hits and 18 earned runs in his last 19.1 innings. In 33 home innings, Nola has a 6.55 ERA and .304 allowed batting average. The Mets will probably find a way to screw things up anyway, but I’ll take a shot with them given the pitching edge.